February 17, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Restructure | 1.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Starry Rose | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smooth Quality | 2.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cadeau de Paix | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Appreciate | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fillet of Sole | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Discreet Mission | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rogue Nation | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Special Story | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | American Lincoln | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dooley | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flatexcel | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Will Dancer | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Inclunation | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spectator Sport | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gallant Bid | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bumperdoo | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eddy Dirt | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Storm Prophet | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6B | 6 | Playthatfunnymusic | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4B | 4 | Cause I’m Alex | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 3 | Blewitt | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Carthon | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Local Counsel | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Five Star Bunt | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Papa Jim | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | The Big Lebanese | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Top of the Mint | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lorcan | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Neper | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Smile | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gongheifatchoy | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Preston Court | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Five Night Freddie | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | D Emcee | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mend Up | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Power Source | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mac’s Revolution | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oh K Funnybone | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brother Tez | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thesis | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Haynesfield S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Twisted Tom | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honor Up | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Syndergaard | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Loki’s Vengeance | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stoney Bennett | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fiery Opal | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bobby Man | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | True Blue Giant | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Paddy Brown | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | I Saw It All | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saratoga Promise | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Sinner Is You | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Millionaire Joe | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Da Berg | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Freudian Sip | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fotis | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.