February 16, 2019 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Chocolate Speights | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Flat Out Joy | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Over Emphasize | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hard Not to Love | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thought I’dmissyou | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Morning Cynn | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miss Boom Boom | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Halo Darlin | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speakers | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indypendent Deputy | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Moccasin | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kennedie Sky | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Believe Indeed | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Palladium | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Swamp Souffle | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vangilder | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ack | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Poppy’s C Note | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Parsimony | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storms River | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Harmon | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mo Mississippi | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Montana Moon | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thief of Joy (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mutineer | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Speakerofthehouse | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Potantico | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Union Station | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Camp | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Curry | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Prodigal Son | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Starring John Wain | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Play Money | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Don’tteasethetiger | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Birthday | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Derby Star | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Unicorn | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Posit | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mercy Mercy | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Holly Hundy | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Kittyhawk Lass | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Emrata | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Happy Tune | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Meanasasnake | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Maxim Rate | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Live the Moment | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Suprema | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Whirling | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gia Lula | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Heloise | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Val | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Warm It Up | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Copper Cowgirl | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mousey Mousey | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Annitasheaven | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Wishing Well S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Emboldened | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Spy Ring (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Compelled | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Spin Me a Kiss | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Birdie Gold | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Barbara Beatrice | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | La Sardane (FR) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Belvoir Bay (GB) | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Painting Corners | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Quebec | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Suebee | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | A Little Bit Me | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lynne’s Legacy | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Poster Girl (GB) | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tesora | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Mongolian Shopper | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Santa Monica S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dream Tree | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Amuse | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Marley’s Freedom | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Selcourt | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paradise Woods | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Escape Clause | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mopotism | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Samurai Jack | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | River God | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Silent Musketier | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Kichiro | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Railman | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Violent Behavior | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Secret Courier | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Surprise Fashion | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Palaleo | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Red Valor | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Craig’s | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | King Lebron | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Spectator’s Dream | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.