February 15, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Netela | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 6 | Sunrise Hawk | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Desert Prophet | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Garey Park | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Simba’s Pride | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Unbroken Song | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beauty Boy | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tylers Bandit | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Elegant Elle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Half Waypoint | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aloha Betty | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Snowball | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gottabegolden | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kick N Kiss | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Have No Fear | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cajun Music | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lookin Back At It | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hot Ten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Outback Jack | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Reckless Ransom | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Masterly | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ruston Vow | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | John’s Luck | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Freakonthelead | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Quality Production | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Wildwood Dejavu | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Concord Fast | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Masked | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Johnny Obvious | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lawton | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Indian Lover | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fifth Title | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Jalen Hurts | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tensas Talk | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sherminator | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Looking for Bull | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Payday Too | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kingdom Way | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tune My Guitar | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Marco Mischief | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fire Lake | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 12 | Final Argument | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Amazon Cry | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Sand Pit Road | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Paddy O’Lionel | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Remembermis | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Well’s Gold | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Treys Midnite Moon | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | T’ Cadeau | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Thunderberg | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Zarb’s Gift | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lass Channel | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Code of War | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Silent Cry | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Equivocal | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Person to Person | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Jazz It Up | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | D Two | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Confection Fortune | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tommy C Me | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Dad Said No | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Locket Box | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Freightrainfreeman | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Moro Chief | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Seek N Justice | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Beyond the Arch | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flashly | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dance Rhythms | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Unbridled Class | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Decant | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scarlet Flutter | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Starving Artist | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hint of Mint | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Another Level | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Brilliant Flair | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fiftieth | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spun Line | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Michel It’s Autum | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Song and a Kiss | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Singmebackhome | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Twins Plus a Dot | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dynamite Daughters | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | British Invader (GB) | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Gavins Little Sis | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pretty Priority | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cooler Schedule | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Burns Flat | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.