January 19, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tap City Danzer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sherminator | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flashy Brew | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tensas Talk | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Logan’s Reward | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Release the Beast | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Treys Midnite Moon | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Neon Sky | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saltee Stark | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Oneholylion | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Change of Control | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Newellton | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Weabie | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Simple Pleasure | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exsqueeze Me | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Upgrade Me | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scary Animal | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Morning Molly | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bella Falaya | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tell Tonto | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mo Gayle | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sharp Prospect | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tapit Wise | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bandit Swanson | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Twelfth Labour | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Galindo | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jefe | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Parade Field | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Strong Arm | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cornstarch | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Tiger | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Drummond | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Zumurudee | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Morning Stride | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ninety One Assault | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Applicator | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Picknngrinn | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sun Lover (GB) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Kitten’s Boy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | McFeely | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Compass Zone | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zinger | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Dawn Raider | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Don’task Don’ttell | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 8 | Ballard High | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Long On Luck | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dragon Drew | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Fifth Title | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Locally Owned | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hip Hip Jorge | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Free Speech | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chess Chief | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon Calling | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Driver Dan | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | D Two | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | One for Richie | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Subdued | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Power End | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Fairway Magic | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eskendereyas Dream | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Rock On Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Game Day Decision | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lookin High | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Fever Temple | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Limnery | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Americandy | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whata Perfect Day | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jabbar | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Onarock | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Mike | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cowboys Dream | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rum Bobby | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Beautiful Wall | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jemography | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Vineyard Sound | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Confection Fortune | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ballyhack | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Frank’sgunisloaded | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Panforte Di Siena | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Comedian | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | By My Standards | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gold Buyer | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Osage Moon | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miltontown | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gentle Warrior | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Napoleon’s Empire | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Royal Medallion | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Marie G. Krantz Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Coachwhip | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Auspicious Babe | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Lion in Wait | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Dubara (GB) | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | America’s Tale | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hanalei Moon | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Promise of Spring | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Kabella | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hachi (CHI) | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss Southern Miss | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Louisiana S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Silver Dust | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Harlan Punch | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snapper Sinclair | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honorable Duty | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Phat Man | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Pioneer Spirit | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hawaakom | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Colonel E. R. Bradley H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Big Changes | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Silver Dust | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Team Colors | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | All Right | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | First Premio | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Sir Dudley Digges | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Teodoro (IRE) | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Pioneer Spirit | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Silverbulletday S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Liora | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grandaria | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Needs Supervision | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fun Finder | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cowgirls Like Us | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eres Tu | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mandy Blue | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Lecomte S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Admire | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Money | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | West Texas | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tackett | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | War of Will | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malpais | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Indeed | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Plus Que Parfait | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hog Creek Hustle | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tight Ten | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Manny Wah | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Roiland | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Night Ops | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mo Speed | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Chase the Ghost | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Duncan F. Kenner S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kowboy Karma | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Balandeen | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wynn Time | 0.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Colonelsdarktemper | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Control Stake | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speightsong | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jus Lively | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Three Run Homer | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Inspector Eddie | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Boston Bind | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saint William | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shae’s Day | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lookin At Priority | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chambliss | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.