Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, January 11, 2019

January 11, 2019 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Guilty Kitty 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 7 Highly Centsable 4.50 2.8 5-1
2 1 Whatafind 4.00 3.4 6-1
1A 8 Silver King 4.50 3.9 7-1
5 4 Bertie’s Galaxy 5.00 5.4 10-1
7 6 Dream On Mister 4.50 5.7 11-1
4 3 Closing Up 6.00 6.2 12-1
6 5 Caeus in Pasadena 5.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Pugilist 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Big Blue Magic 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 La Femme Royale 3.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 N. D. Free 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Tiz Cecile 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Corluna 5.00 4.5 9-1
9 8 Aubrey 5.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 Leavem Britten 20.00 6 11-1
8 7 Brenda’s an I Full 20.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Maddy’s Pro 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Delaware Basin 3.50 4 7-1
7 7 El Tristan 3.00 4 8-1
2 2 Golden Argument 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Real Time 5.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Tylers Bandit 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Iron Grip 12.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Whathadhappenwuz 5.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Frolic More 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Sambucca 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 West Texas 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Assemblyman 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Philosophy 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Pickett 12.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Giant Mesa 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Corruze 4.50 4.7 9-1
12 11 All American Hero 4.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Mine Inspector 15.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Echo Alpha Six 8.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Most Mischief 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 10 Tom’s Last General 12.00 8.1 15-1
10 9 Chroniqueur 15.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Alizee 2.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Singita Dreams 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Delachaise 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Royal Angel 3.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Precious Arch 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Fiftieth 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Song and a Kiss 12.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Princesschope (FR) 4.50 SCRATCH
11 12 Aife 4.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Area 3.00 SCRATCH
1 7 Lady Temple 20.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Moon Dash 3.50 2.5 5-1
3 2 Flat Meadow 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 4 Holly Go Lightly 6.00 4.3 8-1
9 7 Limari 4.50 4.4 8-1
1A 9 Brenda’s Fever 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 5 Bella Belle 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 6 Jing 8.00 5.8 11-1
4 3 Telescopic Plan 12.00 6.4 12-1
10 8 Punto de Entrada 8.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Noble Companion 12.00 SCRATCH
1A 9 Equivocal 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 8 Defender 3.50 2.9 5-1
3 2 Courtyard 5.00 4 8-1
2 1 Yabba Dabba Dude 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Dictator 4.00 5.5 10-1
6 5 Cashanova 10.00 6 11-1
9 7 Moon Launch 8.00 6.2 12-1
4 3 Just Revenge 12.00 7.2 14-1
5 4 Hardcore Folklore 12.00 7.6 14-1
11 11 Cade’s On the Bump 10.00 7.8 15-1
8 6 Three Twins 12.00 8.7 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fra Mauro 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Ninety One Assault 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Take That for Data 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Stella d’Oro 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Little John W 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Create Again 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 5 Ecru 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Mobridge 6.00 4.4 8-1
8 7 King of Candy 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Combustible 12.00 5.3 10-1
10 9 It’s Fate 6.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Overnight Success 8.00 6.3 12-1
4 3 Highway Song 12.00 6.8 13-1
9 8 Twoko Bay 8.00 7.2 14-1
12 11 Jailhouse Kitten 6.00 7.8 15-1
11 10 Cheytac 20.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Arctic Dynaflow 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Whatelse Igot Todo 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Not Today Alfie 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Southern Swagg 4.50 4.7 9-1
9 9 Tiz Neyney and Rad 4.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Picacho Peak 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 American Boy 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Grand Omega 12.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Chimneyville 12.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Grand Little Man 20.00 6.5 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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