December 14, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Frostie Anne | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Madame Barbarian | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mia Bella Rossa | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Fond | 1.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malarkey | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Loyalty | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Not About the Nail | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shock Therapy | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Highest Rank | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tiger Man | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Poker Game | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Adversary | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mac’s Revolution | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Icey Cash | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kid Chocolate | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ben of the Bush | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Single Gem | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trustworthy | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go Big Or Go Home | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hokulea | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Domain | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Never Nevermore | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Unpredictable | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Joyful Frolic | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Romantic Pursuit | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stonewalker | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jasminesque | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Always Shopping | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Marilyn | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Whyisshesoolucky | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chica Boom Chic | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Incubator | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Okeamo | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rockin Jo | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | D’ambrosio | 0.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Carmine’s Honor | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shipsandgoods | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Buss the Bell | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | So Good | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Won’t Be Missed | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The I Man | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Elizabeth Nicole | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Gypsy Janie | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Simona | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Party in the Sand | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blooming | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Orchid Party | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Karen’s Gem | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shanghai Glory | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Codrington | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | One More Tom | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Gravitating | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shortlist | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shamrock Kid | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Double Deep | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Galatians | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hoard | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curlin’s New Moon | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pocket Player | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cookie Crisp | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Danny California | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Carrera Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Scorpion Bowl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Passporttovictory | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Leah’s Dream | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Starlite Mission | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tiz a Kitten | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Beaux Arts | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gentle Annie | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Third Card Down | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Two Hot Betty | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Vale | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tequila Sunday | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ouro Verde | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magari | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Aly’s All Out | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Climb the Ladder | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Somethingwithlilly | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Jo Jo’s Candy | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Rapid Route | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.