December 7, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Smart Step | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | House Limit | 0.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Azzedine (FR) | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bad Guy | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alrahaal | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smidge | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bold Gem | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Alright Alright | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saratoga Heater | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Thirsty Donnerstag | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | No Distortion | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | We Did | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | King Kranz | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Snake Oil Charlie | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Francis Freud | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Formal Event | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Tequila Sunday | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blushing Justine | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Laura’s Patriot | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | You Promise | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Princess Mikayah | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Emerald Quality | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eight Minute Ellie | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sophie Germain | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ja’s Malibu | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Princess Pinky | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Abraxan | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diamond Princess | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | September Gurl | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Itsakeyper | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Queen of Umaill | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stirred Not Shakin | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gunboat Diplomacy | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Forever Changed | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Three Birds | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tradeable | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Short Pour | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pascha Pascha | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mary’s Girl | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quietude | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ribbonite | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Cartwheel | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flat Calm | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shimmering Moon | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Noble Freud | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Inheritance | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Roxy Girl | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fair Regis | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s Delightful | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Stay Fond | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sheputaspellonme | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hoponthebusgus | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Karen’s Gem | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Mitchell Road | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8A | 4 | Pivotal Connection (GB) | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bridaled Temper | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Munchkin Money | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10A | 6 | Come on City (GER) | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Filfila | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Goodbye Brockley | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Fairy Link | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | D J’s Favorite | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Full House | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Piedi Bianchi | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jump Ruler | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sunset Ridge | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tanya’s Gem | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Crimson Frost | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Annie Rocks | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tale of Promise | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Santo Antonio | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Raging Fire | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Clonedsimmard | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Holycowits Patrick | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Local Edition | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quintarelli | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dublin Leprechaun | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Decadence | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Well in Tune | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Blue Skies Forever | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Friendship Seven | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.