November 24, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hard Legacy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Speedy Solution | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | No Mo Temper | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Irish Willow | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 1 | Comic Kitten | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Boxwood | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Julia’s Ready | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Silent Surprise | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Support | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Unapologetic Me | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fun Paddy | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The Beauty’s Tale | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lancelots Lady | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Moonfield | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Alizee | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Delcapem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Shacklette | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Naughty Joker | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blunt Force | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Web o’ Gold | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bess | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Got It All | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mucho Mas | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kiss More | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Folk Legend | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Perfect Reins | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vuyelwa | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Quality to Excel | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rodhwaan | 50.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Mr Ambrose | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Kathak | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Topsfield | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Imperial Mission | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Chase the Ghost | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Proud as Punch | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Impossible Mission | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fluellen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Johny’s Bobby | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Tuaandtwentysix | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Admire | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Game Day Decision | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Night Ops | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Liberty’s Pursuit | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 17 | 10 | Better Charge It | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Audubon Wood | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Split the Wickets | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Caritadda’s Prince | 50.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Warrior’s Charge | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Speed App | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Cabot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Replete | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | R One | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Jersey Agenda | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malpais | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Valid Exchange | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fairway Magic | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rocknroll Rocket | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jeans n’ Boots | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Brother Aaron | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luna’s in Charge | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Iwillpersevere | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | By My Standards | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Majestic Day | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Princess Athena | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Arch Avenue | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Meadow Dance | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Mo Wheels Up | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marvelous Martina | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sense of War | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beautiful Tale | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Super Simple | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lightscameraaction | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Needs Supervision | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spice It Up | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gamblin Train | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cirrusly | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lady Rosalie (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Miss Mahalia | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hope So | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Temple City Terror | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Solar Kitten | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20A | 20 | Final Cut | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Arbitress | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 4 | Grandaria | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 8 | Scat Maggie | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Macabre | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 9 | Caliber | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Cairo Cutie | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 19 | 11 | Bossy Bride | 2.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Silent Fluidity | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 17 | 10 | Savvy Spender | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | On Her Terms | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | La Monse | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Viva Per Lei | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Love My Honey | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Fightress | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Miss Ximena | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lucky Girasol | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Lunar Orbit | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fancy Dress Party | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wild Moment | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kajawa | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Midnight Karma | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Talbeya | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Dreaming Diamonds | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Happy’s Reflection | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | My Wynter Rose | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Totally Obsessed | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Went With the Wind | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Discreet Beauty | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Six Shooter | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hawaiian Noises | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Distant Shore | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Super Steed | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jack Van Berg | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Distorted Jimmy | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Corruze | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hide the Demon | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Boldor | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Absolute Control | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady’s Weekend | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spectacular Gem | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Irish Oak | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Restless Rider | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Break Curfew | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Credit | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reflect | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Champagne Anyone | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Causeway | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | High Regard | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Liora | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Homefortheweekend | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dynamic Racer | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | So Alive | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | King Ford | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Synthesis | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Borracho | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Forloveofcountry | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Thousand Percent | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moonster | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiergan | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Classic Czar | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Tactical Quality | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maximum Force | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | I Will Stand | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Kentucky Allstar | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Manny Wah | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Knicks Go | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Signalman | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dunph | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blue Steel | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | King for a Day | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Current | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Plus Que Parfait | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tracksmith | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Topper T | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Royal Urn | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Limonite | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Roiland | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mick’s Star | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Everfast | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Thomas Shelby | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Proud Nation | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Claytnthelionheart | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Quicksilver | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Thetrashmanscoming | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | War of Will | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Derby Date | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Locally Owned | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Curlin Grey | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bundibunan | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | A. K. Safari | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gentle Warrior | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Candizar | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freedom’s Flight | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Agitator | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hoped For | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.