Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 23, 2018

November 23, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8C 8 Jay Vee Bee 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Mr Midtown 3.00 3 6-1
1A 1 Glorious Weekend 4.00 3.6 7-1
2A 2 Babeswildweekend 4.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Mr Abernathy 5.00 4 8-1
11C 10 Trashtalkinyankee 3.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 Over Protective 8.00 5.5 10-1
9 8 Fine Tune 6.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Chief Minister 10.00 7 13-1
7B 7 Spire 10.00 7.4 14-1
10B 9 Storm Rider 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Copper Bullet 1.60 2.9 5-1
7 7 Honorable Treasure 1.40 3.5 7-1
2 2 Knights Key 10.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Wild Shot 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Barry Lee 15.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Storm Runner 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Event Driven 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cedar Creek 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Coleman Rocky 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 One Fine Ride 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Karma Delight 4.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Mutation 5.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Mias Moonbeam 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Bango Box 10.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Got the Notion 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Dos Cuernos 12.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gettysburg 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Grandpa Knows Best 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 I’ve Got Heart 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Tres Equis 4.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Istillgotit 5.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Biloxi Bay 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Southsider 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Two Stepping Groom 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 8 So Caught Up in U 20.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hawk 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Florida Boys 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Out of the Office 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 How’s My Bud 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Bluegrass Gem 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Ship Stalker 5.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Flat Out Fast 6.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Harlan’s Dynamo 10.00 7.7 15-1
7A 7 Lucky Perfection 15.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Burnt Bluff 20.00 8 15-1
8A 8 Mia Tiva Too 15.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Calandave 15.00 9.8 18-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Sweetest Appeal 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Lady Blue 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Full Steam 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 La Monse 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Hawt Mess 2.50 2.2 4-1
10 10 Headland 5.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Take Charge Gina 6.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Papa’s Girl 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Miss Systematic 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Mrs Poochie 10.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Miz Nightcap 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Twins Plus a Dot 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 First to Dance 10.00 6.9 13-1
13 12 Flashy Biz 6.00 7 13-1
12 11 All Fact 12.00 8 15-1
7 7 Foxy Shot 20.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 My Bariley 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mottaret 50.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Markitoff 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Convict Pike 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Honovi 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 7 Souper Tapit 4.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Cape Angel 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 5 Aktabantay (GB) 10.00 5.7 11-1
7 6 All Right 15.00 6.8 13-1
10 8 Dubby Dubbie 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 10 Vigilante 10.00 7.7 15-1
11A 9 Slickly Done 30.00 8.4 16-1
13A 11 Stewards Rules 30.00 9.8 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mineyerownmalone 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Drunken Fridays 5.00 4.6 9-1
9A 9 Jerrid 3.00 4.6 9-1
10A 10 Esposito 3.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Memphisinmay 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Long On Luck 5.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Fat Daddy 15.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Hickory Hill 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Ceeky 10.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Here Comes Doc 8.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lngtermrelationshp 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Capture the Glory 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Courage and Honor 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tempestad 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hello Holiday 30.00 SCRATCH
5 2 Rare Form 4.50 3 6-1
8 5 Mo’s Mojo 3.00 3.8 7-1
9 6 Amiral 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 1 Ballard High 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 4 Bryzzo 8.00 5 10-1
10 7 Big Gemmy 6.00 5.2 10-1
6 3 Ghost Story 15.00 5.5 10-1
11 8 Lenstar 20.00 6.6 13-1
16 11 Naples Trader 20.00 8.1 15-1
12 9 Aqwaam 30.00 8.3 16-1
13 10 Determinant 30.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mrs. Revere S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Over Thinking 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 High Tech 15.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Princess Warrior 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 4 Cool Beans 4.00 4 8-1
8 6 Get Explicit 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Angel of Mischief 15.00 4.5 8-1
10 8 Stella di Camelot (IRE) 2.00 4.8 9-1
4 3 Kabella 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Lessons From Avery 30.00 5.9 11-1
12 10 Dark Artist 8.00 6.6 13-1
9 7 Divine Queen 20.00 6.8 13-1
11 9 Arabella Bella 50.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Clark H. Presented By Norton Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Seeking the Soul 1.60 2.7 5-1
1 1 Prime Attraction 3.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Leofric 3.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Hence 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Bravazo 4.50 4.7 9-1
4 4 Hawaakom 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Storm Advisory 30.00 6 11-1
8 8 Sightforsoreeyes 30.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Victory Lane 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Apollo’s Leap 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Franknjymme 4.50 2.7 5-1
7 5 New Colossus 2.50 2.9 6-1
8 6 Presidential Tweet 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 4 Kansas City Zip 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Just Like Richie 20.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Timbrook 30.00 5.2 10-1
9 7 Laser Loop 8.00 5.4 10-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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