November 21, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lisnet | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bobby Lee | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gator Vindication | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kissin Kory | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Daniela | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kimberley Dream | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Arlanza | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tina Sparkle | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Four Star Ninja | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Paris of Francia | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ameribelle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Catkins | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Traci’s Greeley | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Riesling | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | St. Louise | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ella Brown | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ms Right Now | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lettem Bern | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alexa’s Gold | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hugh B. | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Troubled Charlie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Inmyfathersimage | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Circle Unbroken | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Strut the Ring | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Frank | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Cha Mono | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mark My Way | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | C Js Billy Byu | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Express Lane | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Hardest Part (GB) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Preacher Power | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Venture Forth | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Marv’s Magic | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Old Guard | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Silver Shield | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cardiac Kitten | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 10 | Apollo’s Leap | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | St. Denman | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 9 | Neon Gator | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 18 | 11 | Victory Lane | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Souper Wish | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Leinster | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Unmatchable | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Max Q | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Into My Dreams | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Uncle Artie | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Never Even Called | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Southwest Trail | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Orcus | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Unstabled | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sights and Sounds | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Dog | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | King Ptolemy | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Frogman Mel | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Purimeter | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Aviator Parks | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Candy Ruby | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Two Grand | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Blazer | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Brerry | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Handiwork | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Tashreeh | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Gonzo | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Battered | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Midnight Shine | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Red Blue and True | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Two If by Sea | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Morgan’s David | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Unprovoked | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mary Jeans Wildcat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bel Canto | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sea Shack | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | La Dama | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Kantastic | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rollover Risk | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Southern Candy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Macbu | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | My Lady Dowry | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Spoofy Doo | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Served Cold | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Orbital Flag | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Secret Trick | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Racey Reecey | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Morty | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blame the Dream | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Radar Vision | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Conquest Classic | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Stewards Rules | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Untraceable | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | King of Candy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Trumpi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Art Collection | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20 | 20 | Rare Form | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Sekondi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Big Gemmy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | El Rubio | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 9 | Silver Dust | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Discovered | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Combustible | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drop Kick | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 19 | 10 | Hello Holiday | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Commandeering | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Capture the Glory | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Soaring Bird | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Be Frank | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Morethanfishin | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Undercover Lover | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Park Ridge Benny | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Calandave | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Carmelo | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lead Astray | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Parauari (FR) | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | One Thirty Nine | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honor Mission | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Come On Dover | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bacoli | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fulkerson | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beautiful Game | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jingle Me This | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Distorted Ransom | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Chasingthegame | 12.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.