Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 21, 2018

November 21, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lisnet 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bobby Lee 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Gator Vindication 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Kissin Kory 3.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Princess Daniela 10.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Kimberley Dream 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 6 Arlanza 10.00 6 11-1
10 9 Tina Sparkle 8.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Four Star Ninja 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 8 Paris of Francia 12.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ameribelle 15.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Catkins 1.80 2.9 5-1
2 2 Traci’s Greeley 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Riesling 2.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 St. Louise 15.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Ella Brown 3.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Ms Right Now 30.00 5.7 11-1
9 8 Lettem Bern 15.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Alexa’s Gold 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hugh B. 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Troubled Charlie 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Inmyfathersimage 30.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Circle Unbroken 2.50 2.6 5-1
4 3 Strut the Ring 3.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Flying Frank 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 4 Cha Mono 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 7 Mark My Way 4.50 4.7 9-1
8 6 C Js Billy Byu 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 5 Express Lane 15.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Hardest Part (GB) 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Preacher Power 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Venture Forth 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Marv’s Magic 50.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Old Guard 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Silver Shield 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cardiac Kitten 10.00 SCRATCH
17 10 Apollo’s Leap 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 4 St. Denman 3.50 4.9 9-1
15 9 Neon Gator 8.00 5 9-1
18 11 Victory Lane 3.00 5.1 10-1
5 3 Souper Wish 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 6 Leinster 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Unmatchable 6.00 5.8 11-1
11 7 Max Q 30.00 6.6 12-1
2 1 Into My Dreams 30.00 6.9 13-1
7 5 Uncle Artie 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 8 Never Even Called 30.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Southwest Trail 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Orcus 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Unstabled 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 6 Sights and Sounds 2.00 4 8-1
1 1 Star Dog 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 King Ptolemy 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Frogman Mel 15.00 5.4 10-1
8 7 Purimeter 10.00 5.9 11-1
9 8 Aviator Parks 15.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Candy Ruby 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Two Grand 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Blazer 4.00 2.6 5-1
7 5 Brerry 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Handiwork 10.00 4.4 8-1
10 8 Tashreeh 3.50 5 9-1
11 9 Gonzo 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Battered 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 6 Midnight Shine 10.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 Red Blue and True 10.00 6.1 11-1
6 4 Two If by Sea 15.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Morgan’s David 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Unprovoked 3.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Mary Jeans Wildcat 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Bel Canto 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Sea Shack 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 La Dama 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Kantastic 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Rollover Risk 12.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Southern Candy 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 5 Macbu 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 7 My Lady Dowry 30.00 6 11-1
12 8 Spoofy Doo 30.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dancing Waves (IRE) 1.60 2.5 5-1
2 2 Served Cold 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Orbital Flag 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Secret Trick 6.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Racey Reecey 3.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Morty 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Blame the Dream 10.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Radar Vision 20.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Conquest Classic 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Stewards Rules 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Untraceable 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 King of Candy 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Trumpi 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Fred’stwirlincandy 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Art Collection 15.00 SCRATCH
20 20 Rare Form 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Sekondi 20.00 SCRATCH
18 18 Big Gemmy 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 El Rubio 50.00 SCRATCH
17 9 Silver Dust 2.50 2.6 5-1
11 6 Discovered 3.00 3.7 7-1
12 7 Combustible 6.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Drop Kick 10.00 4.5 9-1
19 10 Hello Holiday 10.00 5 9-1
3 3 Commandeering 5.00 5.5 10-1
15 8 Capture the Glory 50.00 6.8 13-1
10 5 Soaring Bird 30.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Just Be Frank 50.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Morethanfishin 30.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Undercover Lover 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Park Ridge Benny 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Calandave 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Carmelo 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Lead Astray 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 9 Parauari (FR) 3.50 4.5 9-1
11 10 One Thirty Nine 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Honor Mission 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Come On Dover 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Bacoli 8.00 5.8 11-1
8 7 Fulkerson 6.00 6.4 12-1
7 6 Beautiful Game 10.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Jingle Me This 20.00 9 17-1
12 11 Distorted Ransom 20.00 9.1 17-1
13 12 Chasingthegame 12.00 9.8 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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