November 18, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Master Distiller | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dream Friend | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miracle Hill | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Count Flanker | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Smidge | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Copperline | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Saratoga Sass | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lady Camille | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Pound Note | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Crater Rim | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Andretta | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dreamers and Me | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | In Denile | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overtime Olivia | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 8 | Anne’s Song | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Prisoner’s Dilemma | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Emblazoner | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Magical Romance | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Mickey Diamond | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fast Track Kathern | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Amazing Audrey | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hera | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Theaterintheround | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Beau Belle | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 11 | Arewehavingfunyet | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Stay Fond | 1.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Keota | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Classic Lady | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Danielle’s Pride | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Anne Dupree | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 10 | Smiles From Sadie | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Hot Liaison | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Puparee | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sweet Like Char | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vip Nation | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wise Strike | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Science Fiction | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Crossing | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Athwaaq | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Florida First | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Know Point Given | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Run From Theheat | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | I’m Guilty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | White Mischief | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Angelia | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Triumphant | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Romantic Pursuit | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jasminesque | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mega Fortune | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Noble Alma | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sheza Diva | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Another | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Identity Politics | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Eagle Pass | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Desperado | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Strike | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bon Raison | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Rapt | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flyoff | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morrison | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Illudere | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Diddley | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leaveematthegate | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shamcat | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Tate | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fleet Irish | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Benevolence | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Gold for the King | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Loki’s Vengeance | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Winston’s Chance | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tribecca | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sudden Surprise | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | My Roxy Girl | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Shimmering Moon | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Wilburnmoney | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Royal Inheritance | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Mentality | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Broken Border | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Awsum Roar | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hannah’s Smile | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overnegotiate | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Alabama Bound | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Saratoga Treasure | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Timely Tradition | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Mystique | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.