November 17, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Charlie’s Affair | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Well’s Gold | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paddy O’Lionel | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Neon Sky | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Crooked as Can Be | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | T’ Cadeau | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zippy | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Get It to Geaux | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sand Pit Road | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Uncle Nearis | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Papa’s Boy | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Star Fitzstall | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Boston Bind | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Prince | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | King Bayou | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Shang | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | He’s No Bully | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Typhoon Tycoon | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Greeley’s Banker | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Saint William | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Senator Con | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Pilot House | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Heat Flash | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Grand Marais | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mosta Flyin | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Point Hope | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Resilient Rick | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Western Reserve | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Itsthebourbontalkn | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aubenas (FR) | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ghurair | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | War Bond | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Irish Proud | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One Kind of Crazy | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Senator Robert | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Menewa | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Tiz a Gentleman | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Unrestricted | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Calimambo | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Make Me Smile | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shanghai Story | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Boston Repo | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Half a Bite | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dream On Mister | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Whiskey’s Gone | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nuggetsofknowledge | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kat’s Pop | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Temple City Star | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 16 | Grove Daddy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cowboys Dream | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 7 | Whata Perfect Day | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bold Proposition | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ian Glass | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mensch | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Oil Rubbed Bronze | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lovesomuch | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Centsmybabyleftme | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Federal Dominance | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whatafind | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lethal Levy | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Oro de Tejano | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mayhaw Jelly | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fever Temple | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Heitai Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Grande Basin | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Monte Man | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Divine Bean | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jockamo’s Song | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cheers to Berti | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Win Lion Win | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Greeley Went West | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Alittlebitextra | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Raising the Ante | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Bitters | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Persistent | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scat At Ms. Pat’s | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Customs in Dixie | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mamma Says | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Timeformetofly | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Champagne Moment | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saints’ Girl | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tensas Thought | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Suzie’s Dream | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chases Dixie Belle | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Crimson Feline | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fuhr a Slam | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Penny Coin Toss | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Madalyna | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Helen Wheels | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cherry Twist | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Singing Ontherail | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Paper Doll | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Roman Bird | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.