Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 17, 2018

November 17, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dan the Go to Man 2.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Imma Bling 1.60 3.1 6-1
2 2 Hard to Be Good 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 K J’s Nobility 3.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Torazo 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Shooters Alley 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Diamondcoat 2.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Evening Tide 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 She Might Tell 4.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Triple Kapalua 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 La Fee Verte 4.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Jordan’s Kitten 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Sweetsongofthenile 6.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Believe Land 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Playful Union 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Woody’s Reward 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Holiday Storm 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Magical Peapod 6.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Bless the Rains 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Cassidy Ave 5.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Gemlover 20.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Myositis Mystique 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Miss Shawhan 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Afoolsbrokenheart 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Native Wahoo 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Voodoothatyoudo 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 See the Bird 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Katie the Cutie 6.00 5.6 11-1
9 8 Lusty Git Yer Gun 8.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Sunrise Countessa 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Soul of Discretion 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Yankton 6.00 SCRATCH
5 3 Raising the Flag 2.00 2.5 5-1
6 4 Gray Sky 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Trappezoid 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 2 Little Kansas 12.00 3.7 7-1
7 5 Ghost Story 3.50 4 7-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Hurricane Dancer 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Better Charge It 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Come On Gerry 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 4 Lord Dragon 4.50 3.5 7-1
7 6 Troy Ounce 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Declined 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Stock Chain 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Laughing Bobby 15.00 5.6 11-1
10 8 Roan Like the Wind 6.00 6.3 12-1
12 10 Passion Play 12.00 6.6 12-1
8 7 Three Twins 15.00 7.3 14-1
11 9 Confection Fortune 20.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Mr Midtown 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Sharp Prospect 2.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Harvey Wallbanger 1.60 2.9 6-1
4 4 Booby Trap 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Cowboys Dream 12.00 5 9-1
6 6 Whata Show Off 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Napoleon’s Empire 8.00 6.1 11-1
9A 9 Bird Dog 15.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Reelfoot 20.00 6.7 13-1
10A 10 High Sheriff 15.00 7.6 14-1
12 11 Charles T 15.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Parade Field 20.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Taruca 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Ebben 4.50 3 6-1
6 5 Mr Darcy 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Fascilitator 3.50 3.5 7-1
3 2 Bourbon Country 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Go Navy Go 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Cabin John 3.50 4.6 9-1
8 7 The Gomper 12.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tap Gun 4.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Mylady Curlin 3.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Dessert Honeys 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Auspicious Babe 6.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 True Dream 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Go Google Yourself 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Beach Waltz 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Miss Mimosa 8.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Bo Peep 15.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Sweet Arithmetic 50.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – River City H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Master Merion 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Oscar Nominated 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Postulation 5.00 SCRATCH
3 1 Mr. Misunderstood 1.60 2 4-1
5 2 Big Changes 5.00 2.6 5-1
6 3 Team Colors 12.00 4 8-1
8 5 Sir Dudley Digges 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 4 Flatlined 15.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Frolic More 3.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Wrath 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Equivocal 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Laughing Fox 4.50 5.3 10-1
3 3 Old Sot 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Market King 15.00 6 11-1
11 11 Run This Town 5.00 6.1 12-1
12 12 Eskenforit 8.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Pow 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Awesome Tracker 12.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Heart of a Dreamer 15.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 All in Stew Oui 15.00 9.6 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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