November 16, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Round Quarter | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jojogottago | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yakadaddy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Major Ridge | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | No More for U | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ronda’s Custom | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cheap Shot | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Clever Prince | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Meraki | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bank On Andy (FR) | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Samargo | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rollwithit | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One Million | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | They Call Me Seb | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Iron Grip | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Purest Pleasure | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Perfect Saint | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Candy Carlos | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | He’s Dann Good | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Theoryintopractice | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gustnado | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tachi | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Red Corvette | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cadet Captain | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thunderberg | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Large Scale | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Starship | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sunrise Hawk | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Moon Over Cuzco | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Briar Jumper | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | El Jake O | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mayor Mac | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sammy Wonder Stone | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wildwood Dejavu | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Whoz Talkin Now | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Say Charlie | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Leftfieldjunction | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pink Twice | 50.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Piranha Tough | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady Worthington | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Explorationist | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sam the Man | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Yabba Dabba Dude | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maximum Factor | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Data | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vivid Verse | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Warriors Gem | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Onarock | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smithwick | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | North Hullen | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Outback Jack | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fire Lake | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brave Benny | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ed’s Rocket | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chase the Bling | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Il Est Vite | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wicked Stride | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Proud | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Nine Five Four | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Mr. Sulu Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sir Genghis | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ninety One Assault | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | In the Navy | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mageez | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Autumn Warrior | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Morning Mischief | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Berniestrike | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Magic Vow | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Gladyousawme | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pursuit of a Dream | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Grande Basin | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flashy Brew | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Charge the Line | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Swinging Greeley | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Discreetly D | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cayenne | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Absolut Neworleans | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Logan’s Reward | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Star Yankee | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Vapor Viper | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Drinking Dixie | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Amandrea | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sacred Lady | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ravenel | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fortunate Girl | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mary Celeste | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Calaveras | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Michel It’s Autum | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Prado’s Encore | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sissy’s Kitten | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | British Invader (GB) | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Color Fashioned | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tupelo Hon E | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Reconsider | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Metry Kitten | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cry Like a Baby | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.