Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 16, 2018

November 16, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fake Solution 1.80 1.9 4-1
3 3 Super Clear 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Let It Go Indigo 3.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Montt 4.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Strider 15.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Naprome 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Paynt Your Eggs 8.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Securitiz 2.00 3 6-1
5 5 Capital Letters 1.60 3 6-1
3 3 Vaporman 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Secret House 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Two Stepping Groom 20.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Niigon’s Glory 4.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bird Traffic 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Carolina Beach 2.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Street Rally 4.50 4 8-1
8 8 Armony’s Angel 3.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Queen Alexandrina 8.00 4.4 8-1
5A 5 Impulsive 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Resurrection Road 10.00 5.8 11-1
7A 7 Tschudi’s Girl 8.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Overanalyzfakenews 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Elusive Hero 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Wild About Candy 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Royal Blue Boy 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Blue Rooster 3.50 4.4 8-1
8 8 Dime Dropper 5.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Point to Dunkirk 20.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Wild Road 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Ginny B 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Teenage Idol 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Classysinger 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Miss Hattie 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Song and a Kiss 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Takechargmatriarch 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 My Maiko 8.00 3.2 6-1
10 8 Khairiya 2.50 3.9 7-1
6 5 Bentley’s Dream 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Two Two’s Legacy 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Alin Azul 15.00 6 11-1
9 7 Mon Amour 8.00 6.1 12-1
11 9 Risky Ride 8.00 7 13-1
8 6 Headlining 15.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Shackira Shackira 5.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Babaknowsevrything 5.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Deauville Mist 2.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 My Kinda Devil 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Uno Sueno 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Union Obsession 5.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Honor Bar 6.00 6 11-1
5 5 Stylitude 12.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Atruevision 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Fort Peck 2.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Chief Oakie Dokie 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Westerland (GB) 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Uphold 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Snapper Sinclair 2.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Noble Commander 3.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Lone Rock 15.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dolce Andromeda 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Motion Emotion 8.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Kid Sis 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 Summer Delivery 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Princess Z Ohsix 6.00 4.3 8-1
11 9 Miss Imperial 2.50 4.4 8-1
4 3 Golden Jasmine 12.00 4.4 8-1
7 5 Out for a Spin 12.00 5.6 11-1
2 1 Arbitress 15.00 5.7 11-1
10 8 Sugar Love 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 I’llmakeyousmile 12.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ultima D 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Missseventhirteen 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lenamarie 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Sacred Storm 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Girl’s Night 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dame Wicked 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Juju’s Specialgirl 8.00 SCRATCH
9 5 Focused 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Courtmewithcarats 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Diamond Tap 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Trace 10.00 3.8 7-1
12 7 Even Beat 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 4 Persephone’s Dawn 12.00 5.1 10-1
10 6 Our Snowflake 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Munchies 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Native Indy 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 I Am Miss Brown 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Wood Not Mind 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Chevy to the Levy 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Another Stone 20.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Tickety Boo 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Commercial Appeal 6.00 6 11-1
11 9 Winners Expedition 12.00 6.3 12-1
12 10 Bela Menina 12.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Too Cool 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 I Got It 20.00 7.8 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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