November 16, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fake Solution | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Super Clear | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Let It Go Indigo | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Montt | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strider | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Naprome | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Paynt Your Eggs | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Securitiz | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Capital Letters | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vaporman | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Secret House | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Two Stepping Groom | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Niigon’s Glory | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bird Traffic | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Carolina Beach | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Street Rally | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Armony’s Angel | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Queen Alexandrina | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Impulsive | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Resurrection Road | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Tschudi’s Girl | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Overanalyzfakenews | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Elusive Hero | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wild About Candy | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Blue Boy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Rooster | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dime Dropper | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Point to Dunkirk | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wild Road | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Ginny B | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Teenage Idol | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Classysinger | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Miss Hattie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Song and a Kiss | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Takechargmatriarch | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Maiko | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Khairiya | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bentley’s Dream | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Two’s Legacy | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alin Azul | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Mon Amour | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Risky Ride | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Headlining | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shackira Shackira | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Babaknowsevrything | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Deauville Mist | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Kinda Devil | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Uno Sueno | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Union Obsession | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Honor Bar | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stylitude | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Atruevision | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Fort Peck | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chief Oakie Dokie | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Westerland (GB) | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Uphold | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Snapper Sinclair | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Noble Commander | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lone Rock | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dolce Andromeda | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Motion Emotion | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Kid Sis | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Summer Delivery | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Princess Z Ohsix | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Miss Imperial | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Golden Jasmine | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Out for a Spin | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Arbitress | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sugar Love | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | I’llmakeyousmile | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ultima D | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Missseventhirteen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Lenamarie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sacred Storm | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Girl’s Night | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Dame Wicked | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Focused | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Courtmewithcarats | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Diamond Tap | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trace | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Even Beat | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Persephone’s Dawn | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Our Snowflake | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Munchies | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Native Indy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | I Am Miss Brown | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wood Not Mind | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chevy to the Levy | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Another Stone | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tickety Boo | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Commercial Appeal | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Winners Expedition | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bela Menina | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Too Cool | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | I Got It | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.