Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 15, 2018

November 15, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 I’ve Got Heart 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Moneymeister 3.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Indium 3.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Handsome Harve 4.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Order of the Quest 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Escalera 4.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Rexarony 30.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 You Flatter Me 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Backside Belle 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Paddys Class 3.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Murika 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Parisian Stroll 4.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Blue Ridge Girl 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Kyniska 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Perfectly Mattie 10.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bonnie Arch 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Party Boat 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Streamline 2.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Hachi (CHI) 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 She’s Pretty Lucky 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 In the Mood 20.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hellofaguy 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Burnt Bluff 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Chasingthegame 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Spring Solo 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Silver Giant 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Risky Town 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 6 I’m a Lucky Guy 3.50 4.2 8-1
10 7 Rollin Smoke 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 5 Jennysregalman 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Our Luck 30.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 15 Storm Rider 15.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Oh Bene 4.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Over Protective 12.00 SCRATCH
2B 14 The Kid in Syd 15.00 SCRATCH
3 1 It’s Game Time 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 5 Defender 3.50 4.5 8-1
10 8 Galindo 2.50 4.5 9-1
4 2 Boss Dixie 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 3 Staccato 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 7 Moscow Minister 15.00 5.9 11-1
11 9 Post Close 12.00 6.2 12-1
13 11 Off Sixes 6.00 6.5 12-1
9 6 Mr. Big City 15.00 7 13-1
5 4 Maya Solomea 20.00 7.2 14-1
12 10 Albireo 20.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dilettante 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Big Iron 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Doug’s Birthday 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Jefazo 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 3 Day Dreamer 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Thegistofit 5.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 Steel Shot 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Here’s Carlos 10.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Out for a Spin 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Girlfriend Rocket 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Saddle Shoes 15.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Ultimate Mo 12.00 4 8-1
7 6 Philanthropic 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Fun Finder 15.00 4.3 8-1
11 10 Patsy 4.00 5 9-1
8 7 Bohemian Bourbon 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 4 Net 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 3 Heels 20.00 5.3 10-1
9 8 Upgrade Me 4.50 5.6 11-1
6 5 Subiaco 20.00 7 13-1
10 9 Miss Mahalia 20.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bud’s Bayonet 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sights and Sounds 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Swamp Ruler 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 All Hansens Ondeck 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Still Chief 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 7 Easy Doer 5.00 4.9 9-1
9 8 Cedar Creek 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Sharm 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 Leombruno 15.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Fairyland 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Brittney On Blades 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Dance Rhythms 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 La Dame Blanche 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Psalmody 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Pastime 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Parol 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 7 Good Move 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 V J’s Bet 20.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Melaleuca 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 Decant 10.00 5.2 10-1
13 8 Majestic Mist 10.00 6 11-1
5 4 Pretty Greeley 20.00 6.8 13-1
14 9 World Peace 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 6 Tiz Little Bull 4.00 SCRATCH
1A 7 Derby Dance 4.00 2.4 5-1
2 1 Grats Road 4.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Undivided 3.50 3.7 7-1
3 2 Our Graycious Girl 8.00 4 8-1
4 3 Cisco Bay 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 B Deb’s Fortune 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Lady Shackleford 30.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 My Aunt Beth 20.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Double Oaked 10.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Ginormous 15.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Mushaboom 30.00 8.9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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