November 15, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | I’ve Got Heart | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moneymeister | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indium | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Handsome Harve | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Order of the Quest | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Escalera | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rexarony | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | You Flatter Me | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Backside Belle | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Paddys Class | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Murika | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Parisian Stroll | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Ridge Girl | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kyniska | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Perfectly Mattie | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bonnie Arch | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Party Boat | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Streamline | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hachi (CHI) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | In the Mood | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hellofaguy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Burnt Bluff | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Chasingthegame | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Spring Solo | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Giant | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Risky Town | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | I’m a Lucky Guy | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Rollin Smoke | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Jennysregalman | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Our Luck | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 15 | Storm Rider | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Oh Bene | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Over Protective | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 14 | The Kid in Syd | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | It’s Game Time | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Defender | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Galindo | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Boss Dixie | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Staccato | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 7 | Moscow Minister | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Post Close | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Off Sixes | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mr. Big City | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maya Solomea | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Albireo | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dilettante | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Big Iron | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Doug’s Birthday | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jefazo | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Day Dreamer | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thegistofit | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Steel Shot | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Here’s Carlos | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Out for a Spin | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Girlfriend Rocket | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Saddle Shoes | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Ultimate Mo | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Philanthropic | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fun Finder | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Patsy | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bohemian Bourbon | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Net | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Heels | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Upgrade Me | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Subiaco | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Miss Mahalia | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bud’s Bayonet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sights and Sounds | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Swamp Ruler | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All Hansens Ondeck | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Still Chief | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Easy Doer | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cedar Creek | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sharm | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Leombruno | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Fairyland | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Brittney On Blades | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Dance Rhythms | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | La Dame Blanche | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Psalmody | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Pastime | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Parol | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Good Move | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | V J’s Bet | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Melaleuca | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Decant | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | Majestic Mist | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pretty Greeley | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | World Peace | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Tiz Little Bull | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 7 | Derby Dance | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Grats Road | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Undivided | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Our Graycious Girl | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cisco Bay | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | B Deb’s Fortune | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Shackleford | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Aunt Beth | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Double Oaked | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ginormous | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mushaboom | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.