Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 14, 2018

November 14, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Believe in Me 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Tipazar 1.60 1.9 4-1
4 4 Ciara 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Bird Key 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Pretty At War 3.50 4 7-1
3 3 Seeds of Time 15.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Miss Artie 4.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Now Power 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Applique 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Blue Collar 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Love On Tides 3.50 4.6 9-1
6 6 Hardly Mate 4.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Quinn Murphy 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Looks Super 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 The Gipper 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Restless Rambler 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Mutajaded 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 3 En Hanse 6.00 4 8-1
7 6 Forze Mau (VEN) 5.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Sharp Art 3.50 4.9 9-1
6 5 Icatiro 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 No Funny Biz 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Twobirdsonestone 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Flat Out Beautiful 3.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Ourbestfriend D L 2.50 3 6-1
7 6 Musical Man 4.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Kitchi 4.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Not Now Rand 5.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Rum Bobby 12.00 5.1 10-1
8 7 Recapture 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Catinati 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Jerrid 2.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Shobiz Star 3.00 3 6-1
9 8 Justice for Themob 5.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Hello People 30.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Back Togetheragain 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Allidoisdreamofyou 8.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Mellow Fellow 15.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Kahramani 6.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Vedelago (IRE) 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Steel Shot 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Neverquitdreaming 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 My Man Kan 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Accumulator 4.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Big Al 5.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Vandelay 3.50 5.7 11-1
1 1 On John 30.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Buck Island Day 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Trenton Bridge 10.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 Spirit Hawk 8.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Sidney’s Warrior 12.00 7.1 14-1
6 6 Confederate Rags 20.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Major Tempo 30.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cured by Kitten 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tour d’Argent 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Don’t Tell Marge 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Haniel 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Rahway 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Vanilla Cat 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Deadline 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 5 April Fifteenth 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 7 Tropical Wave 10.00 5.7 11-1
9 6 Tweety Show 12.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Riesling 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Flat Awesome Jenny 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Discreesita 8.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Summer Storm 2.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Mo 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Hoptown Honey 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Perfect Beauty 20.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Cipherin’ Sue 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 7 Morning Belle 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Latent Revenge 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dance Proudly 4.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bondurant 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Tough Stuff 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mount Calvary 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Welovecandy 20.00 SCRATCH
3 1 Mister Maestro 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 3 Shangroyal 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 5 Tommytom 4.00 4 8-1
5 2 Zambian Dream (CHI) 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 7 Crosswalk 5.00 4.8 9-1
9 6 Unmoored 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 4 Tia Flor 50.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Scouting 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Little Mighty Man 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Big John O 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Blue Mesa 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Wild Will 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Tap Show 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Rapid Assent 12.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Whatelse Igot Todo 4.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Fighting for Grace 20.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Back Page 8.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 National Pride 4.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Starlin 30.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 London Werewolf 12.00 7 13-1
6 6 Mireuon 30.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Go Chiva Go 20.00 9 17-1
10 10 Delivered by Akiss 50.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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