November 11, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dusty Miller 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Maid of Iron 3.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 What a Fox 3.00 4 8-1
10 10 Vegan Goes Best 3.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 Weightlessness 20.00 6.4 12-1
12 12 Stellar Stiletto 4.50 6.5 12-1
7 7 Q Go Girl 15.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Savvy Spender 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Katie’s Bayou 12.00 7 13-1
11 11 Caroline Lois 10.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Stormy Memo 30.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Lisnet 50.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 My Mystery 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 Candrasa 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Northern Connect 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Zemo 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Olympic Smoke 4.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Rilla 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Adorable Eyes 20.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Budget Cut 15.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Colonial Jill 5.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Council Rules 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Awesome Gal 3.50 4 8-1
6 6 Backintheacademy 3.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Super Wonderful 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Majestic Kindness 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Color Me Pretty 4.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Princess Drossie 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Undercover Lover 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Doc Kane 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Match Play 2.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Awesome Fu 3.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Mexico Memories 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Zorzor 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Instant War 8.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Break the Deal 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Wilderness Gate 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Mine My Time 4.50 3.4 6-1
10 9 Yondering 3.50 4.6 9-1
9 8 Into Wynning 4.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 A. P. Royal 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 5 Youngin’ Fearless 10.00 5.4 10-1
11 10 Jimmy Joe 8.00 6 11-1
7 6 Wicked Gem 15.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Border Crossing 20.00 7.1 13-1
8 7 Hello Bodie 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Basecamp 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Lord Dragon 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Proud as Punch 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Napoleon’s Empire 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Albireo 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Fluellen 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Love Point 4.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Temple 4.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 A Man Called Boady 4.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 He’s the Souperwon 10.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 War Treaty 3.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Freemore 5.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 El Ahijado 10.00 5.9 11-1
11 10 A. K. Safari 6.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Big Beautiful Wall 20.00 7.1 13-1
10 9 Dry Lake 15.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rain Drop Kid 20.00 SCRATCH
4 3 One Thirty Nine 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Trading Cash 5.00 3.2 6-1
10 9 Smoke Monster 2.50 4.5 8-1
7 6 Checkmark 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Chipollino 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Peekacho 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 2 Smart and Broke 20.00 5.8 11-1
9 8 Daringly Bold 12.00 6.6 12-1
8 7 City Life 30.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Shanghai Tariff 4.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Nineteenth Street 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Go Lady Jay 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 Maybe Wicked 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Bizzee Mischief 6.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Quick Quick Quick 4.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Foxy Mischief 15.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Take These Chains (IRE) 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Vagabond Princess 4.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Smart Emma 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Cheeky Cherub 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Valentine Wish 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Five Hearts 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 You Cheated 5.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Lunar Approach 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 School Board Prez 15.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 She’s a Gypsy 12.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fairly Honest 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Skye Sensational 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Taffydoo 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Perfect Beauty 20.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Say It Softly 1.20 3.4 6-1
1 1 Igottawhiteface 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 Connie Ann 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Vyera 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Lucy’s Town 8.00 4.4 8-1
10 9 She’s So Bossy 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Pebble Slinger 30.00 6.2 12-1
8 7 Cape Kimbo 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 8 Fake News and Data 30.00 7.5 14-1
13 12 Arch of Triumph 15.00 8.5 16-1
11 10 Queen Maxine 30.00 9.6 18-1
12 11 Miss Fahrenheit 50.00 10.1 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.