November 10, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Urban Insight | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ipanema Beach | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Belleinthecity | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Irreplaceable | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Figure | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai Aguilera | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Honored Promise | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | She Looks Proud | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Zena Rules | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Don’t Stop Maria | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fashion Envy | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She’s a Fine Line | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mahdia | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thirster | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cure the Thirst | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Trilby | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Klassie Connect | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Deano | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sambucca | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Intonation | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Collection | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Veritas | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Squadron Commander | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | One Bet From Even | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cottage Tap | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Accolady | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Winter Sunset | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Irish Intuition | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Le Moine | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Zamzam | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Seeking a Star | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Free to Fly | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Holly Molly Dolly | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Hope So | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Holywood Humor | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Lady Leah | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Thea Bee | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 10 | Drinking Dixie | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Canton Comet | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Spac | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Levanto (ARG) | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Memphisinmay | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Altito | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Surprise Prize | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fat Daddy | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Yes I See | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ucanthankmelater | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Long On Luck | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Garden Affair | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eye’s Reward | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Freudian Finish | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Broadway Cat | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Portion | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Note to Selfie | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Her Giant | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shaharazad | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sadi’s Hope | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cullum Road | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Pony Up | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Stewards Rules | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hardest Part (GB) | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Midnight Tea Time | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Lascaux | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Gostisbehere | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Yourdecisionotmine | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Arrival | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tobias | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Frogman Mel | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Curate | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Third Day | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lasting Legacy | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Totally Boss | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rockshaw | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spikes Shirl | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Best of Greeley | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Irish Oak | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Classy John | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Six Shooter | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Nitrous | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dynamic Racer | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | P H Factor | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hog Creek Hustle | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chase Greatness | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Commonwealth Turf S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | March to the Arch | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sniper Kitten | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Reride | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hot Springs | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Marzo | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zero Gravity | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Year of the Kitten | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Trivial | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sophie’s Angel | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Dial Me | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Taylor’s Princess | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unfading Beauty | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Orbelina | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Parking Ticket | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Honor With Pride | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Her Kitty | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | North Princess | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cinder | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bella Moon | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.