November 9, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Annagram 5.00 SCRATCH
3 2 A. P. Princess 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Class Action 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Franki D Oro 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Hush Y’all 6.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Skip and a Hop 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Bettyb 20.00 6.4 12-1
10 9 Kelly’s Agenda 6.00 6.5 12-1
8 7 Temple City Charm 12.00 6.9 13-1
9 8 Tiz Dreaming 12.00 7.3 14-1
11 10 Calm Is Key 15.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Inheritthewind 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bordini 2.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Riff Raff 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Zip ‘n Sip 2.50 3.6 7-1
4 3 Dark Arden 12.00 4 8-1
5 4 One Fine Ride 10.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Stuart Hall 3.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Believeinholidays 2.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Applewood 5.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Makeamericagreat 4.50 4.7 9-1
8 8 Destiny Awaits 4.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Gambit 8.00 5 9-1
4 4 Tapitor 30.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Pucon 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Courage and Honor 3.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Curlins Pride 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Valycove 2.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Lngtermrelationshp 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Run Tappy 3.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Orient Magic 20.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Bold Dreamer 15.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 It’s Game Time 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Super Clear 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Strider 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Duke of Monroe 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Its Yes 3.00 4 7-1
2 2 Chirk 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Triple Double Zero 6.00 5 9-1
4 4 Gordie 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Fast Data 15.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Betwithbothhands 2.50 5.3 10-1
5 5 Impress Me 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Colombard 15.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Turnagain 8.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Five Arches 15.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Midland 20.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Take Charge d’Oro 15.00 9.8 18-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Harlan Selection (ARG) 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gostisbehere 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Marksman 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Jailhouse Kitten 4.50 SCRATCH
7 5 Mr Darcy 3.00 3.4 6-1
10 6 Forgotten Coast 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Create Again 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Storm Peak 20.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Tapit City 15.00 4.4 8-1
11 7 Omen of Change 3.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Haiku 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Runnin’ Ray 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lord Dragon 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Asano 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Storm Rider 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Wild Medagliad’oro 3.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Wilmington 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Thundershook 4.00 4.8 9-1
12 10 Tapit Wise 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 B P Rocket 12.00 6 11-1
14 11 Bourbon Calling 4.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Twelfth Labour 8.00 6.4 12-1
9 8 Clipboard Money 10.00 7 13-1
15 12 Royal Medallion 6.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Thetrashmanscoming 15.00 7.4 14-1
11 9 Team Effort 10.00 8 15-1
5 5 Releasethethunder 12.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Zapperini 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 My Bariley 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Baratti 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Krampus 1.60 SCRATCH
4 2 Net Gain 5.00 3.4 7-1
11 7 Phat Man 2.50 3.6 7-1
10 6 Rich Daddy 3.00 4.1 8-1
2 1 Tizzarunner 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 4 Giant Payday 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 3 Bandar 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 5 Youngest Daughter 30.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mandy Blue 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Craft Show 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Unholy Alliance 3.00 3 6-1
9 7 Istan Council 3.00 3.9 7-1
10 8 Carrizo 2.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Anonymously 12.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Peruvian Appeal 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Include Edition 15.00 5 9-1
5 5 City Diva 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Thunderous Gem 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 9 Bivian B 20.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Chance of Frost 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Cape Time 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Tiger Lisa 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Almafuerte 4.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Serious I Candy 5.00 4.6 9-1
10 9 My Dark Secret 5.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Iwannatalkaboutme 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Sunshine Cake 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Kiwi Cat 15.00 7.2 14-1
9 8 Silver Reign 20.00 7.9 15-1
11 10 American Alphabet 12.00 7.9 15-1
12 11 Fast Girl 12.00 8.1 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.