November 9, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Annagram | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | A. P. Princess | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Class Action | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Franki D Oro | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hush Y’all | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Skip and a Hop | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bettyb | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kelly’s Agenda | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Temple City Charm | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tiz Dreaming | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Calm Is Key | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Inheritthewind | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bordini | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Riff Raff | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Zip ‘n Sip | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dark Arden | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | One Fine Ride | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stuart Hall | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Believeinholidays | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Applewood | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Makeamericagreat | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Destiny Awaits | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gambit | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tapitor | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pucon | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Courage and Honor | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlins Pride | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Valycove | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lngtermrelationshp | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Run Tappy | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orient Magic | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Dreamer | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | It’s Game Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Super Clear | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Strider | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Duke of Monroe | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Its Yes | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chirk | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Triple Double Zero | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gordie | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fast Data | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Betwithbothhands | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Impress Me | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Colombard | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Turnagain | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Five Arches | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Midland | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Take Charge d’Oro | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Harlan Selection (ARG) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gostisbehere | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Marksman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jailhouse Kitten | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Mr Darcy | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Forgotten Coast | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Create Again | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Peak | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tapit City | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Omen of Change | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Haiku | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Runnin’ Ray | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lord Dragon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Asano | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Storm Rider | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wild Medagliad’oro | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wilmington | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Thundershook | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Tapit Wise | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | B P Rocket | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Bourbon Calling | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twelfth Labour | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Clipboard Money | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Royal Medallion | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thetrashmanscoming | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Team Effort | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Releasethethunder | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Zapperini | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | My Bariley | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Baratti | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Krampus | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Net Gain | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Phat Man | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Rich Daddy | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tizzarunner | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Giant Payday | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bandar | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Youngest Daughter | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mandy Blue | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Craft Show | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Unholy Alliance | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Istan Council | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Carrizo | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Anonymously | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Peruvian Appeal | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Include Edition | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | City Diva | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thunderous Gem | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bivian B | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Chance of Frost | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Cape Time | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiger Lisa | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Almafuerte | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Serious I Candy | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | My Dark Secret | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Iwannatalkaboutme | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sunshine Cake | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kiwi Cat | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Silver Reign | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | American Alphabet | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Fast Girl | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.