November 7, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Pretty At War | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dakota Diva | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Shezalemondropkid | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Limari | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trieste (BRZ) | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Paigely | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gentle Ruler | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Southern Sunday | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | She’s So Needy | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Snuck Out | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Great Sense | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chase the Ghost | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Souper Jackpot | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | American Mandate | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Dumas | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brush Country | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sevennotrump | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Proud Dixie | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Indian Gem | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Racey Reecey | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rose to Glory | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Midnight Blvd | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kalispell | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Shawhan | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Katie the Cutie | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miss Harry | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mucha Mezquina | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Crafty’s Dream | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Happy’s Reflection | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Moonfield | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Champagnerie | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Classysinger | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stolen Beauty | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Matapan | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mom I Forgive You | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Social Circle | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Laser Ladee | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Floss Dancer | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ronan | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vortices | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She Wants More | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Bobby Lee | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bally Squall | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Yass Queen | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Delachaise | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Elsie’s Honor | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Feeling Good | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Czraina Maria | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lngtermrelationshp | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Naples Trader | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hello Holiday | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rushin Tothecircle | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flight Risk | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Out of Hydeing | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Macha’s Reward | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | El Cucuy | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Data Gold | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Esperanzadelcompa | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Aerial Assets | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smile More | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Award | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Aife | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Clever Serve | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Altamira | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Ride | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miz K | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Upset Brewing | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hint of Mint | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sun Studio | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Glorious Hour | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ascot Day | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Foxtrot Sally | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Girl Factor | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Good Creation | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lifefullofreinbows | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Siding Spring | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mottaret | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Rich Daddy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Applicator | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Space Mountain | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sonic Boom | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Galton | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tigers Rule | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Almoreb | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heaven Is Waiting | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | All Right | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Misspent Youth | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Trovatore | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | E Z Bonus | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Revenge Is Sweet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Key Moment | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Undisputed Justice | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Curlin’s Prize | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Queen Jeanne | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Madabouther | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tart N Sassy | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Positive Vibes | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Momma Joann | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.