November 4, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | O’Bernadette | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Flion Lynn Lion | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Viva Per Lei | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Gator Vindication | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Nine Martinis | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Lake Girl | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fiery Blake | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Full Steam | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Sheza Handfull | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Stormy Sofia | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Zodiac Princess | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nocturnal Mission | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Proportionality | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Bailar | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Faith Healer | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bronze Charm | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hymn to Inanna | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She’s a Lucky One | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Auld Cup | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bourbon Shotte | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Everado | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dahik | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Burciaga | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Interlaken | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fault Line | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hours Truly | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Macfadden | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Itwillbealright | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Obtained | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taichung Bobby | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Finished | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Court’s Revenge | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Midwatch | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Love Sick Kitten | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Supercell | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hardest Part (GB) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Silver Shield | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Callmecash | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mjolnir | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Neon Gator | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ammunition | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Prompt | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Timbrook | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shezappealing | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moolah Schmoolah | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | So Aristocratic | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Three Halos | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Will Ye Go Lassie | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sundereya | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grats Road | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hot N Hectic | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Colombard | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Dictator | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tactical Quality | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leroy Be Thy Name | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | He’s a Climber | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wings Up | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Hero | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coleaquilus | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Over Protective | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rockyshack | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cairo Holiday | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bumperdoo | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ronamo | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Hickory Island | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | On John | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Minegold | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Accumulator | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Zip Van Winkle | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gambler’s Choice | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ramblingrudyrags | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Laughing Levi | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Perplexed | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sidney’s Ransom | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peekacho | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arch You Ready | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mr. Compass | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | War Venture | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Flatlined | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Remembering Rita | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Youngest Daughter | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | My Bariley | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Panthera | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sir Dudley Digges | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tizzarunner | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mr Cub | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 1 | Tom’s d’Etat | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 3 | Pioneer Spirit | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 2 | Guest Suite | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Dream Supreme S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dream Pauline | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Swing and Sway | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Astrollinthepark | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Vertical Oak | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Awestruck | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Student Body | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thirteen Songs | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucy N Ethel | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Blazer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Gonzo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Red Again | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Crackin Jon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Coleman Rocky | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Blue and True | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Monday Confession | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Manipulated | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Shine | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Circle Unbroken | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two If by Sea | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cha Mono | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Court’s Ruling | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Anteros | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Seba’s Dancer | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hugh B. | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.