November 3, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Own Agenda | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ghost Story | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hollywood Star | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tiz Mischief | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Last Bad Habit | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mo’s Mojo | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uber Kirk | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Big Gemmy | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Cherokee Run S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr Freeze | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cool Bobby | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Audible | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Honorable Treasure | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Still Having Fun | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Kowboy Karma | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Super Sol | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Principe Guilherme | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Dak Attack | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Smart Remark | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cowboy Creed | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Aveenu Malcainu | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Dream Pauline | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Selcourt | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Sunset | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Mischief | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Marley’s Freedom | 1.60 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Skye Diamonds | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Finley’sluckycharm | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chalon | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Happy Like a Fool | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mia Mischief | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kirby’s Penny | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Anonymity | 15.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stormy Embrace | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Highway Star | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Shamrock Rose | 20.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Insta Erma | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Disco Partner | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bucchero | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stormy Liberal | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Notion | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rainbow Heir | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vision Perfect | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | World of Trouble | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Conquest Tsunami | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hembree | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Richard’s Boy | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lost Treasure (IRE) | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chanteline | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Havana Grey (GB) | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Will Call | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Slew | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | City of Light | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Catalina Cruiser | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seeking the Soul | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seven Trumpets | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trigger Warning | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Firenze Fire | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Isotherm | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Giant Expectations | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bravazo | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fourstar Crook | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sistercharlie (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Illusion (GB) | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Magic Wand (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | A Raving Beauty (GER) | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thais (FR) | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Paved | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Princess Yaiza (IRE) | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Athena (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Santa Monica (GB) | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Eziyra (IRE) | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mom’s On Strike | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smart Choice (ARG) | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fuhriously Kissed | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Twinspires Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Whitmore | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Imperial Hint | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Promises Fulfilled | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Roy H | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Limousine Liberal | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | B Squared | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior’s Club | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Distinctive B | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Always Sunshine | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Mile
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Polydream (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hunt (IRE) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Oscar Performance | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Master (GB) | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Next Shares | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Catapult | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Expert Eye (GB) | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | I Can Fly (GB) | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Happily (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Analyze It | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Almanaar (GB) | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Gustav Klimt (IRE) | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Lightning Spear (GB) | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Mustashry (GB) | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 13 | Divisidero | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 16 | 14 | Clemmie (IRE) | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Abel Tasman | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Champagne Problems | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Monomoy Girl | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Bisou | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wonder Gadot | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wow Cat (CHI) | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | La Force (GER) | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Vale Dori (ARG) | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mopotism | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Verve’s Tale | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Enable (GB) | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Talismanic (GB) | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Robert Bruce (CHI) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magical (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Channel Maker | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Waldgeist (GB) | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Glorious Empire (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arklow | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hi Happy (ARG) | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Liam the Charmer | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Quarteto de Cordas (BRZ) | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Sadler’s Joy | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Hunting Horn (IRE) | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Classic
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Collected | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Toast of New York | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | West Coast | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | McKinzie | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catholic Boy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roaring Lion | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thunder Snow (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Accelerate | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mind Your Biscuits | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mendelssohn | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gunnevera | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Yoshida (JPN) | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lone Sailor | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pavel | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Discreet Lover | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Axelrod | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Chilukki S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Moonlit Garden | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Student Body | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Awestruck | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Shenandoah Queen | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Divine Miss Grey | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bixby Lou | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Berned | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Pricedtoperfection | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.