November 1, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Volodina | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Run Wrightaway | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | As I Please | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Snowflake | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moolamiss | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charmin Dixie | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Sheswildnfree | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Southernperfection | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Oro Bird | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Backintheacademy | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Myositis Mystique | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Wood Not Mind | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Patti Patti Patti | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Kool Aid Girl | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Exemplar | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Capital Letters | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sumner | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | California Swing | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vaporman | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wild About You | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aces High | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Measure Twice | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cardiac Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | El Capa Rojo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Go Chiva Go | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | J P’s Pride (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Commanding Candy | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leinster | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chaps | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Artie | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bodhran | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Loopallu | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tapifyn | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Never Even Called | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Freudian Finish | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Awesome One | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Live It Up | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Eye’s Reward | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jo Marie | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Serious Steam | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Super Simple | 1.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Blue | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Motion Emotion | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’sonthewarpath | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | In Love | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | C R Perfeck Candy | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Diamond Crazy | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Elegant Magdalena | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | La Monse | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lucky Bode | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Last Bad Habit | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Plug Catcher | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Curlins Pride | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Strike | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Pony Up | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Marzo | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Own Agenda | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Commandeering | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Run Tappy | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Aqwaam | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Regal Look | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Ghost Story | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Applewood | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Julius | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | New Colossus | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Into My Dreams | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rain Drummer | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Victory Lane | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rio Bueno | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Flying the Flag | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Extirpator | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marv’s Magic | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Concord Fast | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Icatiro | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unbridled Outlaw | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sevier | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Knights Key | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shut the Box | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | He’s Munnie | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Curlins Vow | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Laddie Boy | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | No Funny Biz | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sharp Art | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bet On Sunshine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rock and Fellers (ARG) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Switzerland | 0.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heartwood | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fort Fortitude | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Control Stake | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Ride | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Uno Mas Modelo | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Speedy Now | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 8 | Confidential | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Seauxtale | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Senor Jobim | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beach Bum | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Soul of Discretion | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Here’s Carlos | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Day Dreamer | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Overzealous | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lucky Britches | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Iron | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Treetop Flyer | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.