October 20, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Drop Kick | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One River Place | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Potential Danger | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zombie | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Batterbatterswing | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grandpa Knows Best | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fiduciary Values | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Key Moment | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Absolute Love | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She’s So Bossy | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Playful Union | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gemlover | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Abstain | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Woody’s Reward | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Lisnet | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Trariti | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sister Kitten | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Free to Fly | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweeping In | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scatrattleandroll | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hidden Facts | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grandaria | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Silent Surprise | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Vasilisa | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Kitten | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bee Bit | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lasting Memory | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Solar Kitten | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | He’s the Souperwon | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Curlin Grey | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Synthesis | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Red Rover | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | And Seek | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Albireo | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Thundershook | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Staccato | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Surprise Prize | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mineyerownmalone | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | True West | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aye Skipper | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Star Dog | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mellow Fellow | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frogman Mel | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fooch | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Taxman | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tale of Fame | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Vitsal | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mister Maestro | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Morethanfishin | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Clay Magic | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Trappezoid | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Just Be Frank | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Master Guns | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stormin El Prado | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Aife | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Patti Patti Patti | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Glamorized | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Salty Scatt | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lil Vie | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Move | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | North Princess | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Shezaprado | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Peru (GB) | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Coco Channel | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Night Owl | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | La Manta Gris | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Sea Swift (IRE) | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tweety Show | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Superioritycomplex (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vevina | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lalun Charm | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lexus Raven Run S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Nootka Sound | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | She’s a Gypsy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Amy’s Challenge | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alter Moon | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | True Royalty | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kelly’s Humor | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Moonshine Memories | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blamed | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Take Charge Paula | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Everyonelovesjimmy | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chauncey | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Divine Queen | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bronx Beauty | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shamrock Rose | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Criminal Mischief | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Flying the Colors | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Still Here | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Reconsider | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lady Leah | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pordavino | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fortunate Girl | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hard Legacy | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trish the Dish | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cosmic Code | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | British Invader (GB) | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Michelles Fault | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Appealing Audrey | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rojo Rocks | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Rodhwaan | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Constancia | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.