October 14, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Take Aletter Maria | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Went With the Wind | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chasin’ Bai | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | La Coyota | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bold Esther | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prayforacure | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mari Chuy | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Ceevee | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bantu | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sniper Kitten | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Reride | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7A | 4 | Roaming Union | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zero Gravity | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dubby Dubbie | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dobby Hasno Master | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Weiland | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady’s Weekend | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | One Bet From Even | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Veritas | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Deano | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | He’s No Bull | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Gato Style | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Hawt Mess | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Skip and a Hop | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Miss Cabotage | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Franki D Oro | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Courtesy Notice | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gator Vindication | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Impulsive | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Constancia | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | First to Dance | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Italian Girl | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Peace Love Bread | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Dreaming | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fiery Blake | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bella Noire | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Foxy Shot | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Cosmic Code | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Appealing Audrey | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bee Bit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hidden Facts | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Scatrattleandroll | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lady Leah | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | British Invader (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Irish Intuition | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mo Wheels Up | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Our Bay B Ruth | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Accolady | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Khairiya | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Cap de Creus | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | It’s Complicated | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 9 | More Than Gracious | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Freedom Passage | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Maybe Wicked | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zaphical | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I’mluckysgirl | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Way | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Go Lady Jay | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Georgia’s Reward | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blossom d’Orange (BRZ) | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Michelles Fault | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hard Legacy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Pordavino | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lasting Memory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Girl On a Mission | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Andi’s Kitten | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Trish the Dish | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Solar Kitten | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Silver Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Julia’s Ready | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 4 | Mary Celeste | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 2 | Maid in the Mist | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 1 | Martian | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Shes So Savvy | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | All Fact | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Lady Trish’s Dream (GB) | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mo’s Mojo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Soaring Bird | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Curate | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chaos Theory | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Share the Upside | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Prolific | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bobby’s Wicked One | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | J. S. Choice | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Commandeering | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | San Elijo | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ego Trip | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | El Cucuy | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rushin Tothecircle | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Valycove | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Omen of Change | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lngtermrelationshp | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Macha’s Reward | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.