October 13, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | My Dream | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Somebody’s Beau | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zartastic | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trouble Coffee | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Purr Cat | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hurry Back | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mjolnir | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gottsacker | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | San Elijo | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Halite | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Forgotten Coast | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thegistofit | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’ve Got Heart | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | One More Tom | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lead Astray | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Control Stake | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sevier | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Copper Town | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heavy Roller | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spikes Shirl | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Icatiro | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Equus Novus | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Gozer the Gozerian | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Leroy Be Thy Name | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wings Up | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Birdmeister | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sambucca | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flion Lynn Lion | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gottageauxgeauxgo | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Chirk | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Taken Back | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | I Got the Boy | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Even Beat | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Moolah Schmoolah | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stay Anchored | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Holly Go Lightly | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | She Doesn’t Mind (FR) | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trivial | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | In a Flury | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shezappealing | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sarabi | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Lady Boots | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Santino | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Broome | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Our Girl Abby | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Diamondcoat | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | To Much Chitchat | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Honor With Pride | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Our Graycious Girl | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lemon Drop Twist | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Charmin Dixie | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14A | 14 | Bird Dog | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 2 | Stock Chain | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Explorationist | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hawaiian Noises | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Soap Bubble | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tapit Wise | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Declined | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Uncapped | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bourbon Calling | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | B P Rocket | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Clench | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | City Siege | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ourbestfriend D L | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Straight Shot | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Foxtrot Sally | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Upset Brewing | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trace | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Treasure in Heaven | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | As I Please | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Verde | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Socata | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Quick Quick Quick | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Trust | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | The Girl Factor | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Unprovoked | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Lane’s End
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Daddy Is a Legend | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Nyaleti (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fatale Bere (FR) | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rushing Fall | 1.40 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mission Impassible (IRE) | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Warrior | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Capla Temptress (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Secret Message | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14A | 14 | Valentine Wish | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Last Promise Kept | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Now Power | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dynatail | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Knows | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Youngest Daughter | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | You Cheated | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Collar | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vagabond Princess | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Smart Emma | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Na Pali Spirit | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Dagney’s Warrior | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dutch Parrot | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Crafty’s Way | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.