October 7, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dr. Baskin | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Portal | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Senor Jobim | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dig Charlie Dig | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pryor | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twin Farms | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tale of Fame | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Guest Suite | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Big Dollar Bill | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Phat Man | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Fortitude | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Securitiz | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Senior Investment | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hot Shot Kid | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Victory Cigar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Whatelse Igot Todo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | D’ambrosio | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jefazo | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shackled | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yondering | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Scouting | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Math Major | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | L T’s Best Design | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go Chiva Go | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Just Like Richie | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Blue Mesa | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Full Schedule | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nook | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 1 | Honey Bunny | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bizzee Mischief | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Council Rules | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Racey Reecey | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen Air | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Awesome Gal | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Myositis Mystique | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Arcelor | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13B | 13 | Kentucky Allstar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 1 | Lord Dragon | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Harvey Wallbanger | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cutting Humor | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Erlich | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Plus Que Parfait | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5B | 5 | Speed App | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Better Charge It | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tactical Quality | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Absolute Control | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Night Ops | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Liberty’s Pursuit | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Thetrashmanscoming | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Indian Summer S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Bizzee Channel | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Abaco Dream | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Strike Silver | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chelsea Cloisters | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Credit Swap | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nitrous | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blame the Frog | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | All About It | 4.50 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mister Banjoman | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hide the Demon | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Reward the Miracle | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Jo Jo Air | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Next Dance | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Sicarii | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Winandyourin Gin | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Champagne Tale | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Wheedle | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Khairiya | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Play for Gold | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Into Mystic | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Neva’s Gal | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | In Charge Annie | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | She’s Got It All | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | She’s a Blossom | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elle’s Town | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cloud Charmer | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Final Cut | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Little Gemma | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bess | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carina | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Dixiana Bourbon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Life Mission | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Concrete Rose | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | War of Will | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Henley’s Joy | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Forloveofcountry | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blockbuster | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Current | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ice City Ghost | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tracksmith | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shazier | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Mick’s Star | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Salvator Mundi | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr Wrench It | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | More Than A. P. | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Pradar | 50.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Juddmonte Spinster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Eskimo Kisses | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Talk Veuve to Me | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chocolate Martini | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sassy Sienna | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiger Moth | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pacific Wind | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Champagne Problems | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fuhriously Kissed | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Southernperfection | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Skeptic | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Oh So Terrible | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Coachwhip | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | I Remember Mama | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Love On Tides | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Drinks On Me | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Excellent Sunset (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stave | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cheeky Cherub | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | May Lily | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pop By | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Savour the Moment | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Psalmody | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Phantom Opening | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Roussalka | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lola’s the One | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Peace Front | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.