September 30, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Yass Queen | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bobby Lee | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indicating | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Channing Road | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She Wants More | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kissin Kory | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Zena Rules | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Deauville Mist | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Double Oaked | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Murika | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Marquee Moment | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Backside Belle | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ashy Taty | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Klassie Connect | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Stage Left | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | P H Factor | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Faraway Kitten | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ice City Ghost | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Marquee Prince | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Junipero Avenue | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Chase Greatness | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Pradar | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Julius | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Uber Kirk | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Warrior’s Dream | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hero’s Welcome | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Untraceable | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Marv’s Magic | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Just Like Richie | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Commercial Appeal | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gingermore | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Honor Bar | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Budget Cut | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rainwalker | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I Got It | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shackira Shackira | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Quality Street | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Seeker | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Lodestar | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eagle Dance | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Artie | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Mas Puro | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overanalyzfakenews | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dance an Irish Jig | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Commissioner Bolt | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Quenlenny | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Monday Confession | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mark My Way | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Handiwork | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Midnight Shine | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kahramani | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Red Blue and True | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Copus | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Stan’s Old Habits | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frost Or Frippery | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Primal | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Eskenforit | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vivid Verse | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Clipboard Money | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Captain Von Trapp | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chess Chief | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ourbestfriend D L | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chroniqueur | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vangilder | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gentle Warrior | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Queen’s Mason | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Snoose Goose | 12.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | High Sheriff | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | America’s Tale | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Auspicious Babe | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fuerza | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Strollin the Bayou | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ethyl Ether | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bo Peep | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Galatasaray | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Citali | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Seba’s Dancer | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meanbone | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Richie | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Politicallycorrect | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Memorial Blue | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hoosier Neighbor | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sharm | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Full Clip | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.