September 30, 2018 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rucksack | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chateau | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zealous | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wisely | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Never Nevermore | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Mighty Judge | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Free N Clear | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Grandpa’s Arianna | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Truly Courageous | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Driven by Speed | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Archumybaby | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bonita Springs | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Same Kinda Crazy | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | E Warfare | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Flipped | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carmine’s Honor | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Can’tweallgetalong | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Hot Rocks | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Foolish Ghost | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Buss the Bell | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kerry Boy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Born for a Storm | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | I Love Jaxson | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 1 | Barely Impazible | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Discreet Mission | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Freud’s Affair | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Suas | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Formal Start | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Introspection | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Enliven | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dovey Lovey | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Off Topic | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Excess Capacity | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Utiki | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Eagle Pass | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Gauguin (GER) | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | High Promise | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mathematician | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sentry | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Winter Union | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Captain Hardship | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Not Sure | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Tapping Colors | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Her Latest Film | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cover Model | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Daddy’s Melody | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Valentines Romance | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Sister’s Keeper | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hot Liaison | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Temperence Hill Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Carlino | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | War Story | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | You’re to Blame | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rocketry | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Archanova | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | G Zap | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Miss Grillo S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Takecharge Mirella | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Newspaperofrecord (IRE) | 1.20 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Technicality | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dogtag | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Stellar Agent | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Varenka | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Virginia Eloise | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Decorated Ace | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kitty’s Legacy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | No More Fast Women | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Naples Legacy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Rosebud’s Hope | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Keota | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Radiant Beauty | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Codrington | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bidding Circle | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pure Magic | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Critique | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Theodosia | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bella’s Game | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.