September 28, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Execution | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Altito | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Surprise Prize | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nominal Dollars | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Side Pocket | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cedar Creek | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mystorynmstikntoit | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Headland | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shacklette | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Arch Avenue | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kelly’s Agenda | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | O’Bernadette | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Here’s to You | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Storm Stride | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Feeling Good | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kimberley Dream | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mines and Magic | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nineteenth Street | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Treble | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Collar | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Annathela | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Two Stepping Groom | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Come On Dover | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Donwell | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Drop Kick | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Awesome Fu | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King’s Reckoning | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Honor Mission | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Undercover Lover | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | B Dubya | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Flight Risk | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Al Taweel | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Netas | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trading Cash | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Knight Errant | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I’m a Lucky Guy | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gran Red | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top Credentials | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Irish Goodbye | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Coach’s Dream | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Canadian River | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mizzen Colony | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Believe in Victory | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smile More | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tell Your Mama | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Tapany | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Let’s Roll | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tripple Step | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Pretty At War | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Elwood’s Advice | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Shareholder Value | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Capital Letters | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | California Swing | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flashy Jewel | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sharp Art | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Exemplar | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dapper Sam | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cowboys Dream | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Parade Field | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Wild Medagliad’oro | 1.20 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Thundershook | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr. Money | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Triple Double Zero | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lucky Fast | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Wilmington | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Curlin Grey | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Goose Drank Wine | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Sekondi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Marzo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Art Collection | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | King of Candy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Marksman | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Thunder Mesa | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Love Your Buttons | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mr Darcy | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Run Tappy | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Kearny County | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Morocco | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Heaven Is Waiting | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Plug Catcher | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Welles Crowther | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tres Troubadours | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Seeking Sheba Town | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gambler’s Choice | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Manifestant | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tememon | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Mason A. P. | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Super Bound | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jail House | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Inca Chief | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Emerygizer | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dahik | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Checkmark | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Naples Trader | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | U S Academy | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Itwillbealright | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | We Be Burnin | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.