September 27, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Promises Broken | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | What What What | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Radiantrithym | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | On Her Honor | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jokasa | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mischievious Kat | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Silver Soiree | 1.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Boots | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Empirita | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Ridge Girl | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tart N Sassy | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tres Mas | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cloudy Legs | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sir Motts Miss | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Balandeen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dazzling Gem | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Advisory | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rivers Run Deep | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shut the Box | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Manning | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Racer | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Princesschope (FR) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Unfading Beauty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Summer Blossom | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tamit (IRE) | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Undivided | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Rollover Risk | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Aife | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Laney | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Tap Gun | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Stay Anchored | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | La Dame Blanche | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spring Break Girls | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Tiz Dreaming | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 12 | Runway Starlet | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Gator Vindication | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Delachaise | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | First to Dance | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Laser Ladee | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rings a Bell | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fiery Blake | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Forever Shining | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gloria Jean | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Urban Kat | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Oxbowindy | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Explorationist | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Split the Wickets | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Frolic More | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Most Mischief | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bird Dog | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Troy Ounce | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grenadier | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tough | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Brush Country | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gottageauxgeauxgo | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Holly Go Lightly | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Smoking Hot Kathy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Deadline | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Market Top | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Lenamarie | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tour d’Argent | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Napier | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 5 | Miz Shelton | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | No Fault | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Don’t Tell Marge | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Fonda Romana | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Little Irishdancer | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Coach’s Dream | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Netas | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kid Creed | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | I’m a Lucky Guy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Irish Goodbye | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Maximus Dan | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Doctor Lee | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Scat | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laughing Levi | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Carmelo | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Red Kite | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perplexed | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Minegold | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cofveve | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Silver Giant | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Brouillard | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.