September 21, 2018 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lou’s Chardonnay | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Asian’s Way | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Loose | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dean’s Ticket | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Non Finisce Mai | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | E Warfare | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Raven’s Rabbit (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | No Deal | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Keota | 1.20 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Currency Chaos | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rachel’s Smokin | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Paddydunalot | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Appreciate | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Salt Pond | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golden Award | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Face It | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Circleofcompetence | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Our Circle of Love | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grayjavu | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Hester | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sienna Blue Eyes (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mucho Glory | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Samadi Sky | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mighty Zealous | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pegasus Red | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brimstone | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sudden Surprise | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Haul Anchor | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ro Bear | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sol the Freud | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ostrolenka | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rectify | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cilantro | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Indy Union | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Land Mine | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tigalalu | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indy’s Lady | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Fond | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Heavy Meddle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Stoney Bennett | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Fleet Irish | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bavaro | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Horoscope | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Frisky Magician | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | We Should Talk | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Whatstotalkabout | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Discretionary Marq | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Speightful Kitten | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Uncle Youdge | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sword Fighter | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ethan Hunt | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Psychic Energy | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | The Crocheron Kid | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ventry Bay | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Discretionary | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Expert | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Singapore Trader | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Herecomesyourman | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wet Your Whistle | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lemonist | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Flyoff | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miles of Humor | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arch of the Diver | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Shortlist | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ego | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Lil Commissioner | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Out of Orbit | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Makin’ Out | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Starlite Mission | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Newport Breeze | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Diamond Jen Brady | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Roxy Girl | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gobi | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flat Calm | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bertram F. Bongard S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dalliance | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Risp | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Bankit | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Poppy’s Destiny | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bustin to Be Loved | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Just Right | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bustin Hoffman | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Frosted Ice | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Okeamo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Shamrock Kid | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bad Guy | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Constant Knight | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | The Sheik of Araby | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Testy Kitten | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Joke | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Pirelli Tower | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jimmy Jazz | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Milardo | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Local Edition | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Triton’s Song | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.