September 20, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dandy Gal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Pocket of Candy | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Student Body | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Some Say So | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Theophilia | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cowgirl Callie | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jolee | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Candy Zip | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Colonel Fred | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Chas Tom | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Trusty Truman | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pleasant Street | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alpha Boy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Richiesonarampage | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Seeking Fast | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Itsprettystormy | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bartbaalu | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Money | 0.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Al | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Here Comes Kyle | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ya Mon | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Pest Pal | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The First Hero | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Andrew the Giant | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unspoken Valor | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rosa Star | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ditten Waddy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ginger Snap Dance | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lion’s Wager | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enchanted Sunrise | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stormtothefront | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Foo Foo Girl | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Knights Ransom | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chestfuloftreasure | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Doggerwinii | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wayaway | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kim Dandy | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Supercede | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hal’s Mischief | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | G P’s Girl | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Posh Ruler | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | R U Forreal | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dorothe Marie | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | No Boundaries | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Surf Shack | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Papa Rizzo | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Romeo O Romeo | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maligator | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All Strikes | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hart Hills Road | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Supermans Cape | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Zanforce | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lillet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dona Spey | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Full Count | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diastole | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zee Ro Drop | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Avery A. | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Daaherachel | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fortressa | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Quirky | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Logi | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Good Mongolia | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Marnate | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Itsagimme’s Girl | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Applique | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gwendalyn Sue | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Teach Me Tonight | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Speed Devil | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chantses | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lion Love | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tannah’blu | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sing One Song | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | April Fifteenth | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mr. Hungry | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Caitlins Road | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Jaguar Ridge | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Kyzan | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greenhorn | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Brett | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Way | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two Minute Man | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Peteizum | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Strict Observance | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Strong Response | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | The Pegasus Book | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.