September 16, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tensas Thought | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hymn to Inanna | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pearl’s Opinion | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kai Nalu | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Whole Scoop | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Waki Patriot | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Foxy Mischief | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mister Harvey | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sambucca | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Classic Czar | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Go Get That | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Deano | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fair Shot | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Luck of the Draw | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Leroy Be Thy Name | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | It’s Game Time | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Heritage | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Rockyshack | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Maybe Wicked | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s a Gypsy | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saints’ Girl | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pretty Greeley | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’mluckysgirl | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Toasted | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Yass Queen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Que Sera Sera | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kada | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nana’s Girl | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Systemic Risk | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Anditsafact | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eye’s Reward | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Noire | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sheza Handfull | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Delachaise | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Shacklette | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Passionate Star | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bold Shot | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Inmyfathersimage | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Union Bowman | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tonbo | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Due to His Charm | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tabaddol | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Perplexed | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Galatasaray | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frost Or Frippery | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ogee’s Ekati | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Safe Passage | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Compose | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dance Rhythms | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Myositis Mystique | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Awesome Gal | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Racey Reecey | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ivy’s College Fund | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Arcelor | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Heart and Pray | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mizzen Air | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Caliber | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | The Emerald Queen | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Covfefe | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Simple | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Don’t Tell Addie | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Foxy Shot | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Proud Emma | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Broadway Cat | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mississippi Coast | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bourbon Girl | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Helen Mae’s Song | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Letters to Belle | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | La Chauffeur | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bobby Lee | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Istan Council | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mucho Mas | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Unholy Alliance | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lunar Orbit | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Upgrade Me | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Matapan | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tizmywaytoday | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Irish Hustle | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | St. Augustine | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Inherent | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fort Peck | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Arrival | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bryzzo | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rushin Tothecircle | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | One Thirty Nine | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Giant Honor | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | I’ve Got Heart | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fighting for Grace | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | El Cucuy | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jefazo | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | National Pride | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mine My Time | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Interlaken | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seeking Sheba Town | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Yondering | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whatelse Igot Todo | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cat’s American Pie | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Full Schedule | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.