September 15, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Macho Alpha | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Oscarific | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Greeleys Spirit | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Willow Ridge | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Admiral Sean | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Demand Ransom | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ice Bank | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | On My Toes | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Glory Train | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fabriana | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | J P’s Gia | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Don’t Hold Queens | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peppermint Ice | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gritty Kitty | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Warretta | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mountain Momma | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Silva Queen | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mary Jeans Wildcat | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lucky At Justice | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hoosessential | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Congaree Gal | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prada Storm | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Causing Smiles | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | All Call | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Always a Catch | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | West Village | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dancing Rock | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | McHenry | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fleetway | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mendota | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Key to the Bridge | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Candy Carlos | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cooper’s Keeper | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Queenoftheroad | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Case Cracker | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sperling | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeleys Angel | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Romancin N Dancin | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Away She Glows | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ice Attack | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady Temple | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Air Turbulence | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tinderella | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wildwood Scat | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Holy Cookie | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Devil’s Rose | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fringe | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Gallatin | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | For My Mom | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Abigail | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fulla Blarney | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | More Than A. P. | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Whata Perfect Day | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drilliant | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Fast | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mighty Might | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Extra Medium | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Le Pond | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Courtyard | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rustic Rick | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Patch’s Lugh | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Swifty Sam | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Hint of Mint | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Templesis | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | V J’s Bet | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Brittney On Blades | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | She’s Taken | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rontos Lily | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fort Marsh | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lil Rum Tum | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lu Sea | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Darling Sofia | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ready for War | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kipper Doodle | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | War Diamond | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Sir Anthony | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Fuelish Behavior | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Zanforce | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Prairie Rebel | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alazan Shiner | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Travel West | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cadet Captain | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ioya Again | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | On the Lam | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Franklin County | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | House of Cortez | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hannity | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Amaroq | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gold Star Kid | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Illini Kitten | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jukebox Money | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ally Song | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jami Racer | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kauai Moments | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Nifty Nellie | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Annie Cat | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lakota Rose | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Circuit Reboot | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sharing a Laugh | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In Focus | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Petal Path | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Francis Leal | 50.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.