September 14, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Silver Soiree | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hoptown Honey | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mine Mine Mine | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tart N Sassy | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Veiled Vixen | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Connie Ann | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Will Ye Go Lassie | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | A J Hart | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Magna G Force | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Phat Man | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Applicator | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Village King (ARG) | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zulu Alpha | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Giant Payday | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lanier | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Net Gain | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Secret House | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Langdarma | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Line Judge | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Race Me Home (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rich Daddy | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Great Minds | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heavy Roller | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vaporman | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sir Genghis | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hickory Hill | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yes I See | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ceeky | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tres Equis | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tashreeh | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fulkerson | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Blue and True | 50.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | One Fine Ride | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trappe Valley | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Red Again | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11A | 11 | Fireball Shot | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Somebody’s Beau | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ecru | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Dream | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Sea | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Courage and Honor | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zartastic | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Trouble Coffee | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Stout | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sailing Solo | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Apollo’s Leap | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Equal Rights | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Rose of Malibu | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Fee Verte | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Saracosa | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clever Serve | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Oats | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She Might Tell | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miz K | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Toothpic | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ballard High | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Bourbon Country | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dig Charlie Dig | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | My Eminence | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Full of Run | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dedicated | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gettysburg | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Firehorn | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wolf Strike | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Portal | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ariska | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Holdonaminit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | High Regard | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drinking Dixie | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Mo Wheels Up | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kelly’s Agenda | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heels | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Still Here | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Martian | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Five Senses | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Move | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Proudly Pacific | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Her Giant | 50.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Madison’s Luna | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dak Attack | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Principe Guilherme | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Barry Lee | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kowboy Karma | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crosswalk | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hoonani Road | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Will’s Pioneer | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ebben | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Joey B | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Wildwoodsgreatest | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two If by Sea | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Artegon | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Justice for Themob | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Shine | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hugh B. | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mark My Way | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Strut the Ring | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Over Yonder | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Aitutaki | 10.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Primal | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Northern Ranger | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.