September 13, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Southern Quality | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Word of Truth | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Run for Charlie | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Changn Fivehundred | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Homer | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | J Z’s Last Try | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Caminante | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Drama Run | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Her Wild Lifestyle | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | B N a Native Girl | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Looktheotherway | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Precious Kowgirl | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Merlot | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golds’way | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brilliant Richie | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ravin’s Treasure | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prince Attack | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Can’t Stop the Cat | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cast a Stone | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | English Laughter | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hurricane Hank | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jimmy At Last | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rhythmia | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Varykino | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Umusbthstalltoride | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sertoman | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fort Desoto | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Star of the Market | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Meetmeforasmoke | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rainwalker | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Can She Scoot | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Allaire | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Para Vivir | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shakakan | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Praisem | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Absolut Neworleans | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Close Behind | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hero of Haven | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Musket Hunter | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Joe | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Codetowin | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Da Goose | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | The King’s Hero | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Temple Zip | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | The Shoe | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Red Hare | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sullyvin’s G G | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Smokin Hot Momma | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Drip Brew | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lethal Leanne | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Neuqua | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Barb n’ Don | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rake It Up | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wind Cheater | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Flatter the Queen | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Castle | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Volgograd | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Dinner | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Roar of the Lion | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maxus | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | New Atlas | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sacred Legacy | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Starstruck Kitten | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hussar | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Maxi’s Taxi | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | And Won | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Silva Queen | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | September Surprise | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | It’s Springtime | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Annie Time Girl | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Countess St Michel | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rain Expression | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Street Smarty | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Hopper | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lauren’s My Girl | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Chargers Miss | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.