September 8, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Franklin County | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | City Sage | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Iker | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Barnyard Fiddler | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Offlee Fun | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kyzan | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dom the Bomb | 1.20 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Greenhorn | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pale Hose | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr D’s Way | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dashing Derek | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A J’s Posse | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Strict Observance | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vapor Viper | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hellofaguy | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cast Iron | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Run Your Race | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Candyrock | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lee’s Luck | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ed’s Rocket | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | French Minded | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Garrison K | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Drayke’s Channel | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Rich Tradition | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Next Monday | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | You Split Tens | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Mighty Man | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Northern Fire | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Purrfect Kitten | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | High Power | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | She’s a Fine Line | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oriental Lady | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen’s All Mine | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Have the Facts | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Glitterati Gal | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Z U Again | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Special Conquest | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Because I’m Olivia | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dixie Lee Attack | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hear the Kiss | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Singingintheheat | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Croce d’Oro | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | El Jake O | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Carson Kan | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Superstar Leo | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bajan Rhythm | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Four Left Feet | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Spectacular Road | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Roskilde | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Felt in Pocket | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Evasive Storm | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lady Temple | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Gwendalyn Sue | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Straight Up Smarty | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sea Diva | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Persistence (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Market Top | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Miss Curlin | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Classy Woman | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Arlington-washington Futurity
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Distant Shore | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Knicks Go | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hide the Demon | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Drink of Water | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sayin Grace | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Castlewood Terrace | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coup de Ville | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Arlington-washington Lassie S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Beach Getaway | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Winning Envelope | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thunderous Gem | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Into Trouble | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Meadow Dance | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Craft Show | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Next Dance | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Get None | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chrome Attack | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | More Than Gracious | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Semper Frey | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Take the Over | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smila’ssenseofsnow | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | All Fact | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Salsita Roja | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lavina | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go Yeowomen | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Crafty’s Dream | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chestfuloftreasure | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Reconsider | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ronan | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.