September 1, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Speed App | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lion Dance | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Signalman | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Will Dancer | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frolic More | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Limonite | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Felix the Fox | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fed Fever | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bumperdoo | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Canarsie Kid | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dowse’s Beach | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zoot Suit | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Asset | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Platinum Prince | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Distortion | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tribecca | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Francis Freud | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Natural Order | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dancetrack | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Raising the Flag | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Illudere | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Allured | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Business Cycle | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brasstown | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | El Mas Puro | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | House Limit | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Consensus Thinking | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Totalitario | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tiz Morning | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | The Dustman | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | English Minister | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Night Prowler | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breaking the Rules | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Team Colors | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Attribute | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holiday Stone | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hockey School | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hembree | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Monster Bea | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | San Elijo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Sigh | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Weather Wiz | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lenstar | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wooderson | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Plainsman | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tres Equis | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Medina Ridge | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Noble Spirit | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spirit Animal | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Southern Bridge | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Justcallmenorman | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Winning Factor | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Noble Nebraskan | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Angelo’s Corner | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Staccato | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Agitator | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hubba Bubba | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Brix | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Long Haul Bay | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Phi Beta Express | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Uno Mas Modelo | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rocking the Boat | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cake Pop | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Devils Halo | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chris and Dave | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Rubus | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hills Pond | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Strike Me Down | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vegas Kitten | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hizeem | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Another | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zap Daddy | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coltandmississippi | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Themanbehindtheman | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Outback Bob | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Final Frontier | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Saranac S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Raging Bull (FR) | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Up the Ante | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | March to the Arch | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Free Drop Billy | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Maraud | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Therapist | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Golden Brown | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sand Dancer | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hot Springs | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Spinaway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Love My Honey | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Catherinethegreat | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chasing Yesterday | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nonna Madeline | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Virginia Eloise | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cassies Dreamer | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Restless Rider | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baby Nina | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sippican Harbor | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Guacamole | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Reflect | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bella Ciao | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Woodward S. Presented By Nyra Bets
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Yoshida (JPN) | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gunnevera | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tapwrit | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Seeking the Soul | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Discreet Lover | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Patch | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kurilov (CHI) | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hence | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Imperative | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Sunny Ridge | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Leofric | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Term of Art | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Zanotti | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Rally Cry | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Glens Falls S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Land Mine | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Santa Monica (GB) | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Onthemoonagain (FR) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summersault | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Homeland Security | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Danceland | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Savannah Belle | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Montdore | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | La Manta Gris | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.