August 23, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – New York Turf Writers Cup H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Personal Start | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Clarcam (FR) | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Iranistan | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Optimus Prime (FR) | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Game Changer (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | New Member (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Show Court (IRE) | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | All the Way Jose | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overwhelming | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | War Value | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stormy’s Song | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Mimosa | 1.40 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tigalalu | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Untaken | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mac’s Revolution | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Not That Brady | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cadillac Frankie | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Sicarii | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Family Biz | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Handsome Chewy | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Foremost | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Solitary Gem | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Salty Smile | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Theodosia | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hogans Holiday | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rosebud’s Hope | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sheputaspellonme | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pure Magic | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Overbook | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Pipes | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Woodbury | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Early Retirement | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quiet Out East | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lost in Manhattan | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Good Wheels | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Scotty Brown | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Graded On a Curve | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Durkin’s Call | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiger Man | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dashing Dan | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Coach Villa | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Macfadden | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Our Honor | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sacred Walk | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Expert | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Royal Edition | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Won’t Burn | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Construct | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Buster Brown Boy | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Leah’s Dream | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Maho Bay | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10A | 8 | Hoponthebusgus | 1.20 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dream Passage | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5A | 3 | Samara | 1.20 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Awesome Quick | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Angel Food | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Alexandra Kay | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Souper Echo | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Jen Brady | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Blushing Justine | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Shanghai Schwartz | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Candymankando | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bronze Age | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Go Big Or Go Home | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | D’yer Mak’er | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zenato | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carmine’s Honor | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Foolish Ghost | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Riskaverse S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cash Out | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Kitten’s Covergirl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Goodthingstaketime (IRE) | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Sting | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tapit Today | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Monte Crista | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ferdinanda | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Going Out | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Punked (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Madame X. | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quaff | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shiny Copper Penny | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shadesofbrilliance | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Siena Magic | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Grandmas Favorite | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Identity Politics | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Measure Twice | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Showcase Mall | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lonhtwist | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Point of Humor | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fixed Point | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.