August 23, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tigerbeach | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rapid Dial | 0.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charge Card | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Junket | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nuclear Option | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saidtomyself | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Soloist | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Camalus | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flight Mission | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Invictor | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seeking Fast | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | I’mjustblowinsmoke | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ginger Snap Dance | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Her Hush Money | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Esther | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chrome Attack | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Southern Romance | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Robbed in Rio | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Grey Mask | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Vincitore | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Southsider | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | No Boundaries | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Romeo O Romeo | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | One Way Home | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Southern Quality | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Itching for Attack | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Justenufftuff | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Colonel Fred | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Warleggan | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Richiesonarampage | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maxi’s Taxi | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Party On Dude | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trumpified | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Tiz Romeo | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Musket Hunter | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Close Behind | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saturdays Hangover | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hero of Haven | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Itsprettystormy | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Shoe | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prudent Hero | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dom the Bomb | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lasting Impact | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Prima Storm | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Golden Story | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 3 | Rivzinthehouse | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Mucho Macho Dan | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Prue | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Brave Benny | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Pale Hose | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Barb n’ Don | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Checotah | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Embarrassing | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Brittney On Blades | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sea Diva | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maria’s Moment | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rake It Up | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mistletoe Miss | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | On the Lam | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fort Ridge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Croce d’Oro | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Tiz Samurai | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Five Green Stars | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Little Baltar | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pat’s Shoes | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | High On Sugar | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Netela | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.