August 16, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Doggerwinii | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Supercede | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shezahotmama | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Latent Princess | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mystique Artiste | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Artic Vortex | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Only Liquor | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Blue Wings | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Dom the Bomb | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rivzinthehouse | 1.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Four Left Feet | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Green Means Go | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Enrage | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tensas Thought | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Heavenly Hill | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Church Road | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pure Blarney | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nook | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kipper Doodle | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sagara | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ready to Fight | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Landing Gear | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | King of the Score | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | U S S Altair | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zimmerman | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Assaulter | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Luvin Bullies | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bet She Wins | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Gagaoveryou | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Addae Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aiken to Be | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bizzee Mischief | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zaphical | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Beautify | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ultra Mission | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Prima Valentina | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Locash | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Carnival Colors (GB) | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rainbow Warrior | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Vasilisa | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Senorita Tapit | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Move Over Now | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Samis Car | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rosa Star | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Katano | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Wave On Wave | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Desierto | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Southern Quality | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 7 | Keen On Gene | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marvelous Sky | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Your Race | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Red Prince | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Purr’s Along | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bar Ryder | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Chas Tom | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Montana Kid | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Slope | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Poddubny | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cookies Are Good | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Half of Manhattan | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Storming the Beach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Franklin County | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 7 | Red Corvette | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Laflowmylaxbro | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Solar Flair | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nate the Natural | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mendota | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hourly | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Regal Kitten | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.