August 15, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Paranoia | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Impazible Creek | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Cool as You Like | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quick On the Draw | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Terralsole | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Whim | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mats Checkride | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Elegant Zip | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tossup | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Margie Cat | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Flambe | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mimic | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Irish Banker | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Three Birds | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Posse Needed | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | No Need to Appeal | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Greatreviews | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pacific Gale | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Breaking Bread | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mahabodhi Tree | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Royalaspen | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hexameter | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Avery Maeve | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Bowl of Kisses | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Banty’s Girl | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Texas Music | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Offlee Irish | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Don’t Tell Addie | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Nova Girl | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Salt Hay Bay | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | D’s Sis | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Brown Cat | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shesasuperfreak | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bull Feathers | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charming Cara | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Heartbustingirl | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Becker’s Galaxy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Imperatore | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tapin Mojo | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Adventist | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Cousin Lou | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marriage Fever | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Sweet Offer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | French Empire | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mrs Vargas | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Peter’s Kitten | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Charreada | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Civil Union | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Desert Isle | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Soar From Shadows | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shamrock Babe | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Daddy’s Melody | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kidoro | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Pitch | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Valentines Romance | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fundy’s Tide | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Professor Snape | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Still Krz | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Richard the Great | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bolita Boyz | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Spartiatis | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Morning Buzz | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Happy Farm | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | In Arrears | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Its All Relevant | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bolton Landing S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Questionoftheday | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shang Shang Shang | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Elsa | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chelsea Cloisters | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drynachan | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Stillwater Cove | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fightress | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Avocado Toast | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Chateau | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | My Good Man | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Shiny Copper Penny | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Florentine Kitten | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Our Honor | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Rucksack | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Tea Time | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Overnight Success | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | King Orb | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heza Kitten | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clyde’s Runner | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Call the Cat | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Trick | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | El Mas Puro | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Purr Cat | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Proximate to Power | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.