August 13, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fixed Point | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Grandmas Favorite | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Showcase Mall | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Fooch | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Slick Silver | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Vettel | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Silver Wings Reven | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Blaze Star | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Arewehavingfunyet | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Asian’s Way | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Anna Rae | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Daria’s Angel | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Conquest So True | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Paula’s Pistol | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cats Halo | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Frederica | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hit a Provisional | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Shanghai Dreams | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grand Banks | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Youth Gone Wild | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Union Patriot | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sardonyx | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | J C S Star | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Tapizars Secret | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hawaiian Noises | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Seismic Jolt | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Current | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fog of War | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | All About It | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Skychief | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fayette Warrior | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hubba Bubba | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love Point | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baggins | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tequila Sunday | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Song for Sue | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Promise Me Roses | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lightworker | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Party in the Sand | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thirsty Gal | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Long Eyelashes | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Very Charming | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Overbook | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tied Up | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Lou’s Chardonnay | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Aggregator | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Karen’s Gem | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Reata’s Reward | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orchid Party | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Proportionality | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Priceless | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mercurian | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Take Your Guns | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flowers for Lisa | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | You’re to Blame | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Passage | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bonus Points | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Take Charge Aubrey | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Roxy Girl | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Out of Orbit | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Starlite Mission | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American Mission | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Delightful | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Freeze | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Changewilldoyagood | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Brimstone | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | The Crocheron Kid | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hidden Vow | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | With Exultation | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mobridge | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Freud | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 8 | Peculiar Sensation | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 5 | Cause I’m Alex | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Vincento | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 6 | Charming Indy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Becker’s Galaxy | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Bold Illusion | 50.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Extinct Charm | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.