August 5, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Lady T N T | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | Mo Wheels Up | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Into Mystic | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | What a Fox | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dance Club | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tweedia | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Facts | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Santo Antonio | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 1 | Perfect Joke | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Jimmy Jazz | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bernardino | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Testy Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 4 | Constant Knight | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 1 | Packed House | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Local Counsel | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Gambler’s Fallacy | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Panic Attack | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Paynter’s Prize | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 2 | Okeamo | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Winston’s Chance | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Heavy Meddle | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mighty Zealous | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Horoscope | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | O Shea Can U See | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Holy Week | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Win With Pride | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No Distortion | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Top of the Page | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rockford | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fleet Irish | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bitumen | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scarf It Down | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Adventist | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Karma Delight | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Troy H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Disco Partner | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Holding Gold | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blind Ambition | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sandy’z Slew | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tombelaine | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ready for Rye | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eastwood | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Square Shooter | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Madding Crowd | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Trish the Dish | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Aunt Hattie (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Brooke Marie | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tula | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Kuna | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Speedy Solution | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Dogtag | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Irish Intuition | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Fortunate Girl | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Seek and Destroy | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Slieve Mish | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s a Black Belt | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Royal Angel | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | What a Catch | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Joopster | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Show Me the Bucks | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Felix in Fabula | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Power | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Earth | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | I’m an Ocala Dude | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wushu Warrior | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bad Student | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Battle Midway | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hardly a Secret | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Believe in Luck | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Roman Approval | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Decisive Triumph | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | War Bond | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Master Plan | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr Maybe | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aire Bueno (CHI) | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Natural Order | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bernay (IRE) | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Halloween Horror | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Thunder Mesa | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Three Perfections | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Clutch Cargo | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 7 | Gauguin (GER) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Gio | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Im the Captain Now | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Pillar Mountain (IRE) | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Convict Pike | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mathematician | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Holiday Bonus | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Captain Hardship | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Alydar S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Timeline | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kurilov (CHI) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Patch | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Realm | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Outplay | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Jazzy Juder | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Safe With Me | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Birthday Gift | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Raspberry Swirl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Naples Legacy | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Samara | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Tres Charmant | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Passing Moments | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Glory | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Paranoia | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Sizzle | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cetara | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.