August 4, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Exulting | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vigilante | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Souper Tapit | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Secret House | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Holiday Stone | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Rocky Tough | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | St. Louie Guy | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Makarios | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hembree | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fundy’s Tide | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bird’s Eye View | 4.50 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aubenas (FR) | 8.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Social Paranoia | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 16A | 16 | Standard Deviation | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Opry | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 11A | 11 | Spirit Animal | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Bronxville | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Casa Creed | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brittas Bay | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Nebraskan | 4.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | All American Hero | 4.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Malthael | 5.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Medina Ridge | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Ian Glass | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bridgetothefuture | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Bumperdoo | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Agitator | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Brew | 15.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | One More Tom | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Our American Star | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Preternatural | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cuarenta | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rogue Nation | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ninja Boys | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Toga | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ragnar Lothbrok | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Ziller | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Zelenka | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Fast Getaway | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Call Me a Star | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 11A | 11 | The Caretaker | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vitsal | 1.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Not So Quiet Man | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Looking Ready | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Outrageous Bet | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A True Giant | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Belleville Spring | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Scatsuku | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mickey T | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton De La Rose S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | On Leave | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Uni (GB) | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Precieuse (IRE) | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pas de Soucis (IRE) | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lido | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bletchley (GB) | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Thundering Sky | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Care Lady (ARG) | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Well Acquainted | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Business Cycle | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alkhaatam | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hersh | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Illudere | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dark N Cloudy | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Duncastle | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Point of Humor | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Raphael | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11A | 11 | Ahead of Plan | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fabulous Fun | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mucho | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Justice of War | 3.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dillon Rocks | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Fullness of Time | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Larceny | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cousin Pete | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moon Colony | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stock Chain | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sneads | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Longines Test S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mia Mischief | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Classy Act | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Alter Moon | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spectator | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Separationofpowers | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Minit to Stardom | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kelly’s Humor | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cathedral Reader | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Norma’s Charm | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Whitney S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mind Your Biscuits | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Diversify | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Backyard Heaven | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Samaritan | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tapwrit | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Discreet Lover | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dalmore | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | McCraken | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Waya S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Santa Monica (GB) | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mom’s On Strike | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lottie | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Summersault | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Homeland Security | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tricky Escape | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Violet Blue | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Queen of Connaught (GB) | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Lure S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ballagh Rocks | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Voodoo Song | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Conquest Panthera | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Inspector Lynley | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zennor | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ticonderoga | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Blacktype (FR) | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Cub | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Camelot Kitten | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dalarna | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.