July 30, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – A.p. Smithwick Memorial H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Modem (GB) | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | All the Way Jose | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Overwhelming | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Personal Start | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Iranistan | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Show Court (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oskar Denarius (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pegasus Red | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bold Illusion | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Crafty Concorde | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sal the Turtle | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nominal Dollars | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Orpheus (ARG) | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Etruscan | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Will Did It | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rubus | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Battle Station | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | New York Song | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shoe Loves Shoe | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pagliacci | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hangman | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yummy Bear | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | McErin | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Crocheron Kid | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Zap Zap Zap | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Benefactor | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magnifier | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Divine Interventio | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Appealing Henry | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lightning Buzz | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nut Nut | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Quai Voltaire | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Cadillac Frankie | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Johnny Tickets | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Catch Me If U Can | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Backtohisroots | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Sicarii | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gump | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Durkin’s Call | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Retreiving | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Roar (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Senor Friday | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rhythmia | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dark N Cloudy | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Survey (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Course Correction | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Midnight Tea Time | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | My Dream | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prompt | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | High Promise | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Western Crusader | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hampton Point | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Coronation Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Originator | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Suebee | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mominou | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brattata | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Broadway Run | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Factorofwon | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flashly | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Classy Dancer | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tesora | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Closer Still (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Criminal Mischief | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Special Relativity | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Haynesfest | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nocturnal Mission | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cathy Naz | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maho Bay | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Curiousncuriouser | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Solitary Gem | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Soluble (GER) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bronson | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Classic Covey | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Soglio | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Channel Cat | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Focus Group | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Scholar Athlete | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Snap Decision | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Adonis Creed | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Master Gunner | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Words of Love | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Seattle Frost | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Truly Courageous | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Nazay | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Magical Romance | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Lady Camille | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Caitriona | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | J C S Star | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unparalleled | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Merlins Muse | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Chutzpah | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Frosty Linz | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Speed Khaleesi | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Union Patriot | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Frederica | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Youth Gone Wild | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.