July 28, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12A | 12 | Fayette Warrior | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Rock On Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Winning Factor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tapizars Secret | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Carter Cat | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stroll Daddy | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Bucktail Spinner | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Party With Friends | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Halladay | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Paper Clip | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Baggins | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’s the Souperwon | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My America | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Reed’s Run | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Nileator | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Dancetrack | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Aire Bueno (CHI) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Driven by Thunder | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Western Reserve | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | St. Louie Guy | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | California Swing | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Poshsky | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | King of New York | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Indebted | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Manifest Destiny | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Air On Fire | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Consensus Thinking | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Love Nest | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gray Nile | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rucksack | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Curlin’s New Moon | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shiloh Lane | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Edition | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Leo | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bowl of Kisses | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | My Roxy Girl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Newport Breeze | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Fair Regis | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Satisfy | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | American Mission | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Out of Orbit | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Under Suspicion | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trouble for Skylar | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | She’s Delightful | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Mucho | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Olympic Express | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Coast | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wild Medagliad’oro | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aurelius Maximus | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Macho Citizen | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Absolutely Aiden | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Derby Date | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Casa Creed | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forty Under | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Borracho | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | The J Y | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Gio | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lunaire | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Abatement (GB) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rapt | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Factor This | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Honorable Treasure | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Morocco | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 6 | Chris and Dave | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Dr. Shane | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Penalty | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Clutch Cargo | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Heaven Is Waiting | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take Notice | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Amsterdam S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | World of Trouble | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Promises Fulfilled | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Engage | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strike Power | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Old Time Revival | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barry Lee | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Soutache | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Imperial Hint | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Switzerland | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Warrior’s Club | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Crow | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Done Deal | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Petrov | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sweetontheladies | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bowling Green S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Money Multiplier | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hi Happy (ARG) | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sadler’s Joy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bigger Picture | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Manitoulin | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Channel Maker | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Highland Sky | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Glorious Empire (IRE) | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sarrasin (GB) | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Jim Dandy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tenfold | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vino Rosso | 1.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flameaway | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sporting Chance | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reride | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Starlite Mission | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fairy Link | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Ferdinanda | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cash Out | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Reversethedecision | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Frippery | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sippin Kitten | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Nantucket Red | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cloak of Secrecy | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Too Charming | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rahway | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Theodosia | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Matty’s Magnum | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Terrabyte | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.